ILLINOIS
ILLINOISILL
1-0 | Road
45
DUKE
DUKEDUKE
1-0 | Home
19
Key Game
KEY GAME
Daniel Brown
#4 | Linebacker@
KEY GAME
Kade Reynoldson
#41 | Punter| Player | |
|---|---|
| Daniel Brown | None-None |
| Kade Reynoldson | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS
100%
DUKE
0%
ILLINOIS
--
DUKE
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
76.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
DUKE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Duke)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around DUKE -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DUKE)
ILL By 1-6 points
15.9%
ILL By 7-13 points
14.2%
DUKE By 1-6 points
16.8%
DUKE By 7-13 points
16.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Illinois
37.72
ILLINOIS
Duke
39.21
DUKE
Simulated Score
Illinois
24
ILLINOIS
Duke
27
DUKE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Duke
Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
Duke
Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Duke (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -1.5
C
Sim
Duke (+0)
Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 76.9
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 12, 2026
DUKE @ ILL
31 - 27
Sep 6, 2025
ILL @ DUKE
45 - 19
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5)
+59.0% more
Duke: 1.5
vs
Illinois: 0.9
Rushing Yards (L5)
+47.1% more
Illinois: 186.9
vs
Duke: 98.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5)
+11.0% more
Illinois: 0.5
vs
Duke: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
ILL Score
37.7
45
DUKE Score
39.2
19
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
19.0 / 20.2
21.0 / 25.0
Rushing Yards
98.8 / 186.9
82.0 / 123.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.4 / 0.5
0.4 / 0.38
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards
397.5 / 394.4
438.0 / 419.0
Turnovers
1.5 / 0.9
5.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILL
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -5.6
DUKE
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 25.3
ATS +/-: +11.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILL
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: 4.6
ATS +/-: -5.6
DUKE
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 25.3
ATS +/-: +11.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +1.3
DUKE
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -6.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DUKE
ILL
DUKE
ILL
ML
75%
3-1
60%
3-2
75%
3-1
60%
3-2
ATS
50%
2-2
40%
2-3
50%
2-2
80%
4-1
TTL
25%
1-3
80%
4-1
25%
1-3
60%
3-2
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