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ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

1-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 5:00 PM ET
War Memorial Stadium (AR)
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS

ARKANSASARK

1-0  |  Home

56
Key Game
Ryan Reese
KEY GAME

Ryan Reese

#54 | Defensive Tackle
@
Maddox Lassiter
KEY GAME

Maddox Lassiter

#47 | Tight End
Player
Ryan Reese None-None
Maddox Lassiter None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ARKANSAS ST
100%
📊
ARKANSAS
0%
ARKANSAS ST --
ARKANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
83.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.9
ARKANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.9 points (Arkansas)
Arkansas StARST (-3.5) 0 ArkansasARK (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Arkansas St Cover

21.8%

Arkansas Cover

78.2%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARK -10.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARK)

ARST By 1-6 points

10.1%

ARST By 7-13 points

6.6%

ARK By 1-6 points

14.8%

ARK By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
36.31
ARKANSAS STATE
47.2
ARKANSAS
Simulated Score
17
ARKANSAS STATE
38
ARKANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arkansas Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arkansas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arkansas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.9
C
Sim Arkansas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 83.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 ARST @ ARK 14 - 56
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +16.9% more
Arkansas: 186.7 vs Arkansas State: 159.7
Total Yards (L5) +16.1% more
Arkansas: 487.3 vs Arkansas State: 419.7
Turnovers (L5) +11.3% more
Arkansas: 1.2 vs Arkansas State: 1.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ARST Score 36.3 14
ARK Score 47.2 56
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.2 / 23.2 29.0 / 23.0
Rushing Yards 186.7 / 159.7 321.0 / 153.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.83 / 0.53
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 487.3 / 419.7 630.0 / 285.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.1 2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
2%TICKETS98%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
21%TICKETS79%
30%MONEY70%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
49%TICKETS51%
92%MONEY8%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ARST
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
ARK
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ARST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
ARK
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -8.6 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
ARK
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -6.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARK
ARST
ARK
ARST
ML
100% 5-0
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
ATS
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
20% 1-4
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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