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TEXAS SOUTHERN

TEXAS SOUTHERNTXSO

0-1  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 6:00 PM ET
California Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

1-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Tory Humphrey
KEY GAME

Tory Humphrey

#97 | Defensive Lineman
@
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
Player
Tory Humphrey None-None
Chase Meyer None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXAS SOUTHERN
0%
📊
CALIFORNIA
100%
TEXAS SOUTHERN --
CALIFORNIA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
34.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 39%
Under 0 61%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.7
CALIFORNIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.7 points (California)
Texas SouthernTXSO (-3.5) 0 CaliforniaCAL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texas Southern Cover

39.7%

California Cover

60.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around CAL -3.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CAL)

TXSO By 1-6 points

14.9%

TXSO By 7-13 points

12.4%

CAL By 1-6 points

17.0%

CAL By 7-13 points

17.9%

AI Model Projected Score
15.17
TEXAS SOUTHERN
18.83
CALIFORNIA
Simulated Score
10
TEXAS SOUTHERN
48
CALIFORNIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI California Win
100% Win Prob
D
Sim California Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI California (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.7
D
Sim California (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 34.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 TXSO @ CAL 3 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +55.3% more
California: 354.0 vs Texas Southern: 227.9
First Downs (L5) +34.9% more
California: 18.7 vs Texas Southern: 13.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +25.9% more
California: 127.9 vs Texas Southern: 101.6
Turnovers (L5) +61.2% more
Texas Southern: 1.8 vs California: 0.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TXSO Score 15.2 3
CAL Score 18.8 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 13.9 22.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 127.9 / 101.6 173.0 / 52.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.5 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.53 / 0.47
Total Yards 354.0 / 227.9 467.0 / 192.0
Turnovers 0.7 / 1.8 2.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
65%TICKETS35%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
79%TICKETS21%
96%MONEY4%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TXSO
--
CAL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TXSO
--
CAL Advantage
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
⚖️ Over/Under
TXSO
--
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CAL
TXSO
CAL
TXSO
ML
20% 1-4
100% 3-0
60% 3-2
100% 3-0
ATS
20% 1-4
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
TTL
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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