Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ Marshall MOST @ MRSH

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

0-1  |  Road

21
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 6:00 PM ET
Joan C. Edwards Stadium
View Odds Details →

MARSHALL

MARSHALLMRSH

0-1  |  Home

20
Key Game
Yousef Obeid
KEY GAME

Yousef Obeid

#36 | Place kicker
@
Caleb Clark-Glover
KEY GAME

Caleb Clark-Glover

#0 | Defensive Back
Player
Yousef Obeid None-None
Caleb Clark-Glover None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
100%
📊
MARSHALL
0%
MISSOURI ST --
MARSHALL --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-22.5
MARSHALL
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +22.5 points (Marshall)
Missouri StMOST (-3.5) 0 MarshallMRSH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

5.4%

Marshall Cover

94.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MRSH -22.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MRSH)

MOST By 1-6 points

3.1%

MOST By 7-13 points

1.4%

MRSH By 1-6 points

6.9%

MRSH By 7-13 points

13.4%

AI Model Projected Score
7.65
MISSOURI STATE
30.15
MARSHALL
Simulated Score
10
MISSOURI STATE
41
MARSHALL
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Marshall Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Marshall Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Marshall (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -22.5
C
Sim Marshall (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -31.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.8
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 MRSH @ MOST 30 - 24
Sep 6, 2025 MOST @ MRSH 21 - 20
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +125.7% more
Marshall: 154.1 vs Missouri State: 68.3
Total Yards (L5) +18.8% more
Marshall: 318.4 vs Missouri State: 268.1
First Downs (L5) +14.7% more
Marshall: 16.3 vs Missouri State: 14.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Marshall: 0.3 vs Missouri State: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 7.7 21
MRSH Score 30.2 20
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.3 / 14.2 12.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 154.1 / 68.3 191.0 / 86.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.2 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.58
Total Yards 318.4 / 268.1 274.0 / 474.0
Turnovers 0.3 / 2.1 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
80%MONEY20%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
MRSH Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
MRSH
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -12.8 ATS +/-: -13.1
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
MRSH
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MRSH
MOST
MRSH
MOST
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
100% 5-0
100% 4-0
ATS
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
TTL
40% 2-3
25% 1-3
40% 2-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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