Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / North Carolina @ Charlotte UNC @ CLT

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

0-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:00 PM ET
Jerry Richardson Stadium
View Odds Details →

CHARLOTTE

CHARLOTTECLT

0-1  |  Home

3
Key Game
Daniel Anderson
KEY GAME

Daniel Anderson

#95 | Linebacker
@
Bronson Long
KEY GAME

Bronson Long

#95 | Punter
Player
Daniel Anderson None-None
Bronson Long None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NORTH CAROLINA
0%
📊
CHARLOTTE
100%
NORTH CAROLINA --
CHARLOTTE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
40.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-10.1
NORTH CAROLINA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +10.1 points (North Carolina)
North CarolinaUNC (-3.5) 0 CharlotteCLT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

North Carolina Cover

76.4%

Charlotte Cover

23.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around UNC -10.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (UNC)

UNC By 1-6 points

15.2%

UNC By 7-13 points

19.7%

CLT By 1-6 points

10.7%

CLT By 7-13 points

7.2%

AI Model Projected Score
25.05
NORTH CAROLINA
14.96
CHARLOTTE
Simulated Score
17
NORTH CAROLINA
38
CHARLOTTE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI North Carolina Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Charlotte Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI North Carolina (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -10.1
C
Sim Charlotte (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 UNC @ CLT 20 - 3
Sep 7, 2024 CLT @ UNC 20 - 38
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +20.3% more
North Carolina: 2.0 vs Charlotte: 1.6
Rushing Yards (L5) +11.3% more
North Carolina: 112.7 vs Charlotte: 100.0
First Downs (L5) +19.6% more
Charlotte: 16.5 vs North Carolina: 13.8
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +12.0% more
Charlotte: 0.3 vs North Carolina: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
UNC Score 25.1 20
CLT Score 15.0 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 16.5 / 13.8 21.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 100.0 / 112.7 21.0 / 148.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.2 0.44 / 0.33
Time of Possession 0.4 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 309.3 / 294.1 271.0 / 303.0
Turnovers 1.6 / 2.0 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
94%TICKETS6%
67%MONEY33%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
78%TICKETS22%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
CLT
0-5-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
CLT
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -23.4 ATS +/-: -9.7
⚖️ Over/Under
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
CLT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +5.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
CLT
UNC
CLT
UNC
ML
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
ATS
80% 4-1
75% 3-1
80% 4-1
100% 4-0
TTL
20% 1-4
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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