Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / UL Monroe @ Alabama ULM @ ALA

UL MONROE

UL MONROEULM

1-0  |  Road

0
FINAL
Sat, Sep 6 • 7:45 PM ET
Bryant-Denny Stadium
View Odds Details →

ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

0-1  |  Home

73
Key Game
Kelbee Holmes
KEY GAME

Kelbee Holmes

#0 | Linebacker
@
👤
KEY GAME

Duke Johnson II

#15 | Linebacker
Player
Kelbee Holmes None-None
Duke Johnson II None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
UL MONROE
100%
📊
ALABAMA
0%
UL MONROE --
ALABAMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-27.6
ALABAMA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +27.6 points (Alabama)
UL MonroeULM (-3.5) 0 AlabamaALA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

UL Monroe Cover

2.4%

Alabama Cover

97.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ALA -27.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ALA)

ULM By 1-6 points

1.5%

ULM By 7-13 points

0.6%

ALA By 1-6 points

3.9%

ALA By 7-13 points

9.1%

AI Model Projected Score
9.79
UL MONROE
37.39
ALABAMA
Simulated Score
10
UL MONROE
55
ALABAMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Alabama Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Alabama Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Alabama (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -27.6
C
Sim Alabama (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.2
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2025 ULM @ ALA 0 - 73
Sep 17, 2022 ULM @ ALA 7 - 63
Sep 26, 2015 ULM @ ALA 0 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +45.1% more
UL Monroe: 222.0 vs Alabama: 121.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ULM Score 9.8 0
ALA Score 37.4 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.1 / 19.4 29.0 / 9.0
Rushing Yards 121.8 / 222.0 212.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.75 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 350.0 / 363.1 583.0 / 148.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.6 0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
13%TICKETS87%
18%MONEY82%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
79%MONEY21%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ULM
3-9-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ULM
4-8-0 (33.3%)
Margin: -15.3 ATS +/-: -8.0
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
⚖️ Over/Under
ULM
6-6-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -1.0
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ALA
ULM
ALA
ULM
ML
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
20% 1-4
TTL
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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