STANFORD
STANFORDSTAN
0-1 | Road
3
BYU
BYUBYU
1-0 | Home
27
Key Game
KEY GAME
Aidan Flintoft
#37 | Punter@
KEY GAME
Tiger Bachmeier
#19 | Wide Receiver| Player | |
|---|---|
| Aidan Flintoft | None-None |
| Tiger Bachmeier | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
100%
BYU
0%
STANFORD
--
BYU
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
68.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.0
BYU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.0 points (BYU)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BYU -13.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BYU)
STAN By 1-6 points
8.6%
STAN By 7-13 points
5.3%
BYU By 1-6 points
13.6%
BYU By 7-13 points
19.3%
AI Model Projected Score
Stanford
27.74
STANFORD
BYU
40.7
BYU
Simulated Score
Stanford
20
STANFORD
BYU
28
BYU
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
BYU
Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim
BYU
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
BYU (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -13.0
C
Sim
BYU (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -8.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 68.4
C
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 48.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 6, 2025
STAN @ BYU
3 - 27
Nov 26, 2022
BYU @ STAN
35 - 26
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5)
+88.3% more
BYU: 267.0
vs
Stanford: 141.8
Total Yards (L5)
+39.0% more
BYU: 447.6
vs
Stanford: 322.0
First Downs (L5)
+26.1% more
BYU: 24.5
vs
Stanford: 19.4
Turnovers (L5)
+22.4% more
BYU: 1.9
vs
Stanford: 1.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
STAN Score
27.7
3
BYU Score
40.7
27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.5 / 19.4
18.0 / 12.0
Rushing Yards
267.0 / 141.8
157.0 / 19.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.4
0.36 / 0.15
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.6
0.58 / 0.42
Total Yards
447.6 / 322.0
332.0 / 161.0
Turnovers
1.9 / 1.6
0.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -20.8
ATS +/-: -11.4
BYU
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 23.0
ATS +/-: +2.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN
2-3-0
(40.0%)
Margin: -20.8
ATS +/-: -11.4
BYU
Advantage
4-0-0
(100.0%)
Margin: 23.0
ATS +/-: +2.8
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0%
Total +/-: +5.7
BYU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0%
Total +/-: -1.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BYU
STAN
BYU
STAN
ML
100%
3-0
80%
4-1
75%
3-1
80%
4-1
ATS
67%
2-1
60%
3-2
50%
2-2
80%
4-1
TTL
0%
0-3
40%
2-3
25%
1-3
60%
3-2
Contextual Game News
USC Linebackers Shine in Win Over Washington, Three Earn Game Ba…
Stanford's Davis Warren Set to Challenge Notre Dame's Elite Defe…
Pat McAfee Pledges $1 Million to Iowa Children's Hospital After …
Lamar Cardinals Soar Past Northwestern State, 42-14, as Demons' …
Louisville Visits NC State for First True Road Test of 2026