Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / James Madison @ Louisville JMU @ LOU

JAMES MADISON

JAMES MADISONJMU

1-0  |  Road

14
FINAL
Fri, Sep 5 • 7:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

1-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Patrick Rea
KEY GAME

Patrick Rea

#11 | Punter
@
Jabari Mack
KEY GAME

Jabari Mack

#1 | Defensive Back
Player
Patrick Rea None-None
Jabari Mack None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JAMES MADISON
100%
📊
LOUISVILLE
0%
JAMES MADISON --
LOUISVILLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
78.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-32.3
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +32.3 points (Louisville)
James MadisonJMU (-3.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

James Madison Cover

1.1%

Louisville Cover

98.9%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LOU -32.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

JMU By 1-6 points

0.7%

JMU By 7-13 points

0.2%

LOU By 1-6 points

2.1%

LOU By 7-13 points

5.7%

AI Model Projected Score
23.16
JAMES MADISON
55.46
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
20
JAMES MADISON
31
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisville Win
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Louisville Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Louisville (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.3
B
Sim Louisville (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -11.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 78.6
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 5, 2025 JMU @ LOU 14 - 28
Nov 5, 2022 JMU @ LOU 10 - 34
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +28.0% more
Louisville: 1.4 vs James Madison: 1.1
Total Yards (L5) +12.3% more
Louisville: 468.5 vs James Madison: 417.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
JMU Score 23.2 14
LOU Score 55.5 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.5 / 21.5 12.0 / 19.0
Rushing Yards 228.3 / 243.6 113.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.36 / 0.41
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.38 / 0.62
Total Yards 468.5 / 417.0 264.0 / 263.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.1 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
10%TICKETS90%
36%MONEY64%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
51%TICKETS49%
63%MONEY37%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
78%MONEY22%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
LOU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
JMU Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 31.6 ATS +/-: +17.3
LOU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
JMU
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +7.3
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
JMU
LOU
JMU
ML
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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