DETROIT
TIGERSDET
78-55 | Road
6
ATHLETICS
ATHLETICSATH
61-72 | Home
7
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Finnegan
#67 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Elvis Alvarado
#37 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kyle Finnegan | None-None | 3.38 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Elvis Alvarado | None-None | 3.45 | -- | 1.2 | 4 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.38 Ldr
ERA
3.45
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
3
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
63%
ATHLETICS
37%
TIGERS
--
ATHLETICS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
71%
Under 0
29%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Detroit)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)
DET By 1-2 runs
19.2%
DET By 3-4 runs
15.1%
ATH By 1-2 runs
17.4%
ATH By 3-4 runs
12.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Detroit
5.76
DETROIT
Athletics
5.23
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
Detroit
3
DETROIT
Athletics
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Tigers
Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim
Athletics
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Tigers (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
C
Sim
Athletics (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 11.0
B
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
DET @ ATH
11 - 0
Aug 1, 2026
DET @ ATH
8 - 6
Jul 31, 2026
DET @ ATH
13 - 1
Jul 9, 2026
ATH @ DET
1 - 4
Jul 8, 2026
ATH @ DET
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit
DET
vs
Athletics
ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.46
▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲
.245
.320
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.402
.720
▲
OPS
.719
181
Home Runs
▲
194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+95.4% more
Detroit: 1.3
vs
Athletics: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+13.6% more
Detroit: 9.3
vs
Athletics: 8.1
Total Bases (L5)
+12.4% more
Detroit: 16.9
vs
Athletics: 14.8
Runs per Game (Season)
+3.4% more
Detroit: 4.5
vs
Athletics: 4.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
DET Score
5.8
6
ATH Score
5.2
7
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 1.3
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
8.1 / 9.3
10.0 / 9.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.6
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 8.4
13.0 / 11.0
Total Bases
14.8 / 16.9
15.0 / 15.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.2
5.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET
Advantage
76-86-0
(46.9%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0
(39.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET
Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6%
Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5%
Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
DET
ATH
DET
ML
59%
95-67
54%
86-73
54%
87-74
54%
87-73
ATS
52%
84-78
64%
101-58
50%
81-80
57%
91-69
TTL
54%
84-73-5
46%
69-81-9
42%
66-90-5
46%
69-81-10
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