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DETROIT

TIGERSDET

78-54  |  Road

3
FINAL
Mon, Aug 25 • 10:05 PM ET
Sutter Health Park
View Odds Details →

ATHLETICS

ATHLETICSATH

60-72  |  Home

8
Probable Pitchers
Drew Sommers
STARTING PITCHER

Drew Sommers

#51 | Relief Pitcher
@
Elvis Alvarado
STARTING PITCHER

Elvis Alvarado

#37 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Drew Sommers None-None 9.00 -- 0.2 1
Elvis Alvarado None-None 3.64 -- 1.0 1
None-None W-L None-None
9.00 ERA Ldr 3.64
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.0
1 K (Strikeouts) 1
AI Model Win Probability
TIGERS
63%
📊
ATHLETICS
37%
TIGERS --
ATHLETICS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
11.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 63%
Under 0 38%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.2
DETROIT
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.2 points (Detroit)
TigersDET (-3.5) 0 AthleticsATH (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Tigers Cover

71.1%

Athletics Cover

28.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around DET -2.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (DET)

DET By 1-2 runs

19.4%

DET By 3-4 runs

18.8%

ATH By 1-2 runs

12.9%

ATH By 3-4 runs

7.3%

AI Model Projected Score
6.69
DETROIT
4.47
ATHLETICS
Simulated Score
3
DETROIT
5
ATHLETICS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Tigers Loss
63% Win Prob
C
Sim Athletics Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Tigers (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.2
D
Sim Athletics (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 11.2
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 2, 2026 DET @ ATH 11 - 0
Aug 1, 2026 DET @ ATH 8 - 6
Jul 31, 2026 DET @ ATH 13 - 1
Jul 9, 2026 ATH @ DET 1 - 4
Jul 8, 2026 ATH @ DET 1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Detroit DET
vs
Athletics ATH
162
Games Played
162
4.46 ▲
Runs / Game
4.31
.241
Avg (AVG)
▲ .245
.320 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.317
.400
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .402
.720 ▲
OPS
.719
181
Home Runs
▲ 194
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +87.0% more
Detroit: 1.0 vs Athletics: 0.1
Home Runs (L5) +51.5% more
Detroit: 2.0 vs Athletics: 1.0
Total Bases (L5) +32.6% more
Detroit: 17.3 vs Athletics: 11.7
Hits (L5) +21.3% more
Detroit: 9.0 vs Athletics: 7.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DET Score 6.7 3
ATH Score 4.5 8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.1 / 1.0 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 7.1 / 9.0 10.0 / 10.0
Home Runs 1.0 / 2.0 3.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 7.0 / 6.1 11.0 / 13.0
Total Bases 11.7 / 17.3 21.0 / 16.0
Walks 4.1 / 3.3 4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
92%MONEY8%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
80%TICKETS20%
94%MONEY6%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
62%MONEY38%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DET Advantage
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH
64-98-0 (39.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
ATH
(47.5%)
Margin: -1.5 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
ATH
84-73-5
O: 53.5% / U: 46.5% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ATH
DET
ATH
DET
ML
59% 95-67
54% 86-73
54% 87-74
54% 87-73
ATS
52% 84-78
64% 101-58
50% 81-80
57% 91-69
TTL
54% 84-73-5
46% 69-81-9
42% 66-90-5
46% 69-81-10
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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