Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / TCU @ North Carolina TCU @ UNC

TCU

TCUTCU

0-0  |  Road

48
FINAL
Mon, Sep 1 • 8:00 PM ET
Kenan Stadium
View Odds Details →

NORTH CAROLINA

NORTH CAROLINAUNC

0-0  |  Home

14
Key Game
Kyle Lemmermann
KEY GAME

Kyle Lemmermann

#34 | Place kicker
@
Jaylen McGill
KEY GAME

Jaylen McGill

#27 | Running Back
Player
Kyle Lemmermann None-None
Jaylen McGill None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TCU
0%
📊
NORTH CAROLINA
100%
TCU --
NORTH CAROLINA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
60.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.3
TCU
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.3 points (TCU)
TCUTCU (-3.5) 0 North CarolinaUNC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

TCU Cover

59.2%

North Carolina Cover

40.8%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TCU -3.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TCU)

TCU By 1-6 points

17.0%

TCU By 7-13 points

17.6%

UNC By 1-6 points

15.1%

UNC By 7-13 points

12.7%

AI Model Projected Score
31.78
TCU
28.51
NORTH CAROLINA
Simulated Score
27
TCU
31
NORTH CAROLINA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI TCU Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim North Carolina Loss
50% Win Prob
A
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI TCU (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.3
A
Sim North Carolina (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
A
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 60.3
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
A
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 UNC @ TCU 15 - 10
Sep 1, 2025 TCU @ UNC 48 - 14
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +24.5% more
TCU: 20.7 vs North Carolina: 15.6
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +19.0% more
TCU: 0.4 vs North Carolina: 0.2
Total Yards (L5) +16.5% more
TCU: 395.4 vs North Carolina: 330.2
Turnovers (L5) +21.8% more
North Carolina: 1.5 vs TCU: 1.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TCU Score 31.8 48
UNC Score 28.5 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 15.6 / 20.7 10.0 / 29.0
Rushing Yards 144.1 / 124.8 50.0 / 258.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.2 / 0.4 0.1 / 0.58
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 330.2 / 395.4 222.0 / 542.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.2 3.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
37%MONEY63%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
47%TICKETS53%
58%MONEY42%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
45%MONEY55%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TCU
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 12.0 ATS +/-: -1.8
UNC Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 4.5 ATS +/-: +3.4
⚖️ Over/Under
TCU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -12.3
UNC
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -4.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
UNC
TCU
UNC
TCU
ML
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
75% 3-1
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1
40% 2-3
100% 4-0
40% 2-3
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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