TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
76-54 | Road
3
MIAMI
MARLINSMIA
60-69 | Home
5
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Andres Gimenez
#0 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Tyler Phillips
#30 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Andres Gimenez | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Tyler Phillips | None-None | 3.27 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
3.27
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
62%
MARLINS
38%
BLUE JAYS
--
MARLINS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
65%
Under 0
35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Miami)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around MIA -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)
TOR By 1-2 runs
14.9%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.1%
MIA By 1-2 runs
19.7%
MIA By 3-4 runs
17.5%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.22
TORONTO
Miami
5.75
MIAMI
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Miami
5
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Marlins
Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Marlins
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.5
C
Sim
Marlins (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.0
C
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
May 27, 2026
MIA @ TOR
1 - 2
May 26, 2026
MIA @ TOR
1 - 8
May 25, 2026
MIA @ TOR
8 - 2
Aug 24, 2025
TOR @ MIA
3 - 5
Aug 23, 2025
TOR @ MIA
7 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Miami
MIA
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.41
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.249
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.326
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.400
.692
OPS
▲
.727
152
Home Runs
▲
168
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+10.5% more
Miami: 168.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+10.3% more
Miami: 4.4
vs
Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season)
+3.5%
Miami: 72.7%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Slugging Pct (Season)
+1.9%
Miami: 40.0%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.2
3
MIA Score
5.8
5
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
7.6 / 9.1
10.0 / 4.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 1.2
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
6.1 / 10.8
6.0 / 8.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 14.7
16.0 / 8.0
Walks
3.2 / 3.3
3.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
MIA
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: 0.0
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
MIA
82-75-5
O: 52.2% / U: 47.8%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
TOR
MIA
TOR
ML
48%
78-84
46%
74-87
55%
88-72
50%
80-80
ATS
56%
91-71
56%
90-71
54%
86-74
49%
79-81
TTL
56%
88-69-5
51%
80-76-5
53%
82-73-5
45%
70-85-5
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