Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Duquesne @ Pitt DUQ @ PITT

DUQUESNE

DUQUESNEDUQ

0-0  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 12:00 PM ET
Acrisure Stadium
View Odds Details →

PITTSBURGH

PITTPITT

0-0  |  Home

61
Key Game
Andrew Graham
KEY GAME

Andrew Graham

#81 | Punter
@
Emmanuel Taylor
KEY GAME

Emmanuel Taylor

#38 | Linebacker
Player
Andrew Graham None-None
Emmanuel Taylor None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
DUQUESNE
50%
📊
PITT
50%
DUQUESNE --
PITT --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
33.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 67%
Under 0 33%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.7
PITTSBURGH
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.7 points (Pittsburgh)
DuquesneDUQ (-3.5) 0 PittPITT (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Duquesne Cover

24.5%

Pitt Cover

75.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around PITT -9.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PITT)

DUQ By 1-6 points

11.0%

DUQ By 7-13 points

7.5%

PITT By 1-6 points

15.4%

PITT By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
11.67
DUQUESNE
21.33
PITTSBURGH
Simulated Score
10
DUQUESNE
45
PITTSBURGH
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Pitt Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Pitt Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Pitt (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.7
D
Sim Pitt (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 33.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 DUQ @ PITT 9 - 61
Key Model Drivers
First Downs (L5) +82.3% more
Pittsburgh: 24.1 vs Duquesne: 13.2
Total Yards (L5) +55.8% more
Pittsburgh: 370.5 vs Duquesne: 237.9
Rushing Yards (L5) +55.7% more
Pittsburgh: 149.6 vs Duquesne: 96.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +18.0% more
Pittsburgh: 0.4 vs Duquesne: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
DUQ Score 11.7 9
PITT Score 21.3 61
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.1 / 13.2 21.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 149.6 / 96.1 158.0 / 37.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.36 / 0.13
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.41 / 0.59
Total Yards 370.5 / 237.9 460.0 / 208.0
Turnovers 2.4 / 2.4 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
12%MONEY88%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
86%MONEY14%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
DUQ
--
PITT Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
DUQ
--
PITT Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 25.0 ATS +/-: +7.5
⚖️ Over/Under
DUQ
--
PITT
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PITT
DUQ
PITT
DUQ
ML
100% 5-0
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
100% 2-0
ATS
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
20% 1-4
50% 1-1
TTL
20% 1-4
100% 2-0
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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