Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Fordham @ Boston College FOR @ BC

FORDHAM

FORDHAMFOR

0-0  |  Road

10
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 2:00 PM ET
Alumni Stadium (Chestnut Hill, MA)
View Odds Details →

BOSTON COLLEGE

BOSTON COLLEGEBC

0-0  |  Home

66
Key Game
Dominic Sansone
KEY GAME

Dominic Sansone

#97 | Place kicker
@
Luca Lombardo
KEY GAME

Luca Lombardo

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Dominic Sansone None-None
Luca Lombardo None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
FORDHAM
50%
📊
BOSTON COLLEGE
50%
FORDHAM --
BOSTON COLLEGE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
57.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 75%
Under 0 25%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.8
BOSTON COLLEGE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.8 points (Boston College)
FordhamFOR (-3.5) 0 Boston CollegeBC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Fordham Cover

31.4%

Boston College Cover

68.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BC -6.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BC)

FOR By 1-6 points

13.0%

FOR By 7-13 points

9.8%

BC By 1-6 points

16.5%

BC By 7-13 points

19.2%

AI Model Projected Score
25.11
FORDHAM
31.89
BOSTON COLLEGE
Simulated Score
10
FORDHAM
42
BOSTON COLLEGE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Boston College Win
50% Win Prob
D
Sim Boston College Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Boston College (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.8
D
Sim Boston College (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 57.0
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 FOR @ BC 10 - 66
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +14.0% more
Boston College: 0.9 vs Fordham: 0.7
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Boston College: 0.4 vs Fordham: 0.3
Total Yards (L5) +11.3% more
Fordham: 420.4 vs Boston College: 372.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
FOR Score 25.1 10
BC Score 31.9 66
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.2 / 20.2 26.0 / 13.0
Rushing Yards 135.1 / 137.3 97.0 / 16.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.67 / 0.19
Time of Possession 0.6 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 372.8 / 420.4 555.0 / 168.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
8%TICKETS92%
22%MONEY78%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
46%TICKETS54%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
40%TICKETS60%
52%MONEY48%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
FOR
--
BC Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
FOR
--
BC Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: -4.4 ATS +/-: -3.8
⚖️ Over/Under
FOR
--
BC
0-5-0
O: 0.0% / U: 100.0% Total +/-: -9.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BC
FOR
BC
FOR
ML
80% 4-1
50% 1-1
80% 4-1
33% 1-2
ATS
60% 3-2
0% 0-2
80% 4-1
0% 0-3
TTL
20% 1-4
0% 0-2
20% 1-4
0% 0-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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