Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / E Kentucky @ Louisville EKU @ LOU

EASTERN KENTUCKY

E KENTUCKYEKU

0-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 3:00 PM ET
L&N Federal Credit Union Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOUISVILLE

LOUISVILLELOU

0-0  |  Home

51
Key Game
Buzz Flabiano
KEY GAME

Buzz Flabiano

#36 | Punter
@
Nick Keller
KEY GAME

Nick Keller

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Buzz Flabiano None-None
Nick Keller None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
E KENTUCKY
100%
📊
LOUISVILLE
0%
E KENTUCKY --
LOUISVILLE --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-35.6
LOUISVILLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +35.6 points (Louisville)
E KentuckyEKU (-3.5) 0 LouisvilleLOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

E Kentucky Cover

0.5%

Louisville Cover

99.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LOU -35.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LOU)

EKU By 1-6 points

0.4%

EKU By 7-13 points

0.1%

LOU By 1-6 points

1.3%

LOU By 7-13 points

3.8%

AI Model Projected Score
1.93
EASTERN KENTUCKY
37.56
LOUISVILLE
Simulated Score
10
EASTERN KENTUCKY
45
LOUISVILLE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Louisville Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Louisville Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Louisville (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.6
C
Sim Louisville (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -35.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 EKU @ LOU 17 - 51
Sep 11, 2021 EKU @ LOU 3 - 30
Sep 7, 2019 EKU @ LOU 0 - 42
Sep 7, 2013 EKU @ LOU 7 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +63.4% more
Louisville: 228.0 vs Eastern Kentucky: 139.5
Total Yards (L5) +41.5% more
Louisville: 431.8 vs Eastern Kentucky: 305.1
First Downs (L5) +23.4% more
Louisville: 19.7 vs Eastern Kentucky: 16.0
Turnovers (L5) +64.1% more
Eastern Kentucky: 1.5 vs Louisville: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
EKU Score 1.9 17
LOU Score 37.6 51
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 16.0 28.0 / 10.0
Rushing Yards 228.0 / 139.5 229.0 / 74.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.67 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.6 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 431.8 / 305.1 542.0 / 150.0
Turnovers 0.6 / 1.5 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
2%MONEY98%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
52%TICKETS48%
83%MONEY17%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
EKU
--
LOU Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
🎯 ATS (Spread)
EKU
--
LOU Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 9.4 ATS +/-: -1.1
⚖️ Over/Under
EKU
--
LOU
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +11.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LOU
EKU
LOU
EKU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
ATS
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
TTL
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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