Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Temple @ UMass TEM @ MASS

TEMPLE

TEMPLETEM

0-0  |  Road

42
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 3:30 PM ET
Warren McGuirk Alumni Stadium
View Odds Details →

MASSACHUSETTS

UMASSMASS

0-0  |  Home

10
Key Game
Dante Atton
KEY GAME

Dante Atton

#7 | Punter
@
Derek Morris
KEY GAME

Derek Morris

#99 | Place kicker
Player
Dante Atton None-None
Derek Morris None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEMPLE
0%
📊
UMASS
100%
TEMPLE --
UMASS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
TEMPLE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Temple)
TempleTEM (-3.5) 0 UMassMASS (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Temple Cover

63.5%

UMass Cover

36.5%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around TEM -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEM)

TEM By 1-6 points

16.9%

TEM By 7-13 points

18.5%

MASS By 1-6 points

14.3%

MASS By 7-13 points

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
26.08
TEMPLE
21.25
MASSACHUSETTS
Simulated Score
20
TEMPLE
27
MASSACHUSETTS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Temple Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim UMass Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Temple (-0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.8
C
Sim UMass (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.3
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 TEM @ MASS 42 - 10
Sep 24, 2022 MASS @ TEM 0 - 28
Sep 15, 2017 MASS @ TEM 21 - 29
Sep 19, 2015 TEM @ MASS 25 - 23
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +56.3% more
Temple: 1.8 vs Massachusetts: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +121.3% more
Massachusetts: 199.0 vs Temple: 89.9
First Downs (L5) +32.5% more
Massachusetts: 20.1 vs Temple: 15.2
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +16.0% more
Massachusetts: 0.4 vs Temple: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TEM Score 26.1 42
MASS Score 21.3 10
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 15.2 18.0 / 24.0
Rushing Yards 199.0 / 89.9 103.0 / 191.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.2 0.27 / 0.75
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.44 / 0.56
Total Yards 367.4 / 316.9 302.0 / 467.0
Turnovers 0.8 / 1.8 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
58%MONEY42%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
69%TICKETS31%
76%MONEY24%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
55%TICKETS45%
59%MONEY41%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEM
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
MASS Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEM Advantage
4-0-1 (100.0%)
Margin: 1.0 ATS +/-: +5.8
MASS
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 14.0 ATS +/-: +6.8
⚖️ Over/Under
TEM
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: +0.9
MASS
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -1.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MASS
TEM
MASS
TEM
ML
0% 0-3
80% 4-1
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
ATS
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
TTL
67% 2-1
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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