Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Maine @ Liberty ME @ LIB

MAINE

MAINEME

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 4:00 PM ET
Williams Stadium (VA)
View Odds Details →

LIBERTY

LIBERTYLIB

0-0  |  Home

28
Key Game
Anthony Pecorella
KEY GAME

Anthony Pecorella

#82 | Punter
@
Derrell Farrar
KEY GAME

Derrell Farrar

#1 | Linebacker
Player
Anthony Pecorella None-None
Derrell Farrar None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MAINE
100%
📊
LIBERTY
0%
MAINE --
LIBERTY --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.9
LIBERTY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.9 points (Liberty)
MaineME (-3.5) 0 LibertyLIB (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Maine Cover

31.2%

Liberty Cover

68.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around LIB -6.9 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (LIB)

ME By 1-6 points

13.0%

ME By 7-13 points

9.7%

LIB By 1-6 points

16.5%

LIB By 7-13 points

19.3%

AI Model Projected Score
16.33
MAINE
23.18
LIBERTY
Simulated Score
13
MAINE
45
LIBERTY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Liberty Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Liberty Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Liberty (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -6.9
C
Sim Liberty (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -32.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 ME @ LIB 7 - 28
Oct 19, 2019 ME @ LIB 44 - 59
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +113.8% more
Liberty: 240.1 vs Maine: 112.3
Turnovers (L5) +48.9% more
Liberty: 2.1 vs Maine: 1.4
Total Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Liberty: 351.1 vs Maine: 307.5
First Downs (L5) +13.3% more
Liberty: 19.7 vs Maine: 17.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ME Score 16.3 7
LIB Score 23.2 28
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 17.4 22.0 / 15.0
Rushing Yards 240.1 / 112.3 194.0 / 184.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.3 0.58 / 0.18
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.56 / 0.44
Total Yards 351.1 / 307.5 391.0 / 316.0
Turnovers 2.1 / 1.4 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
5%TICKETS95%
48%MONEY52%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
28%TICKETS72%
17%MONEY83%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
9%TICKETS91%
5%MONEY95%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ME
--
LIB Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ME
--
LIB Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 12.6 ATS +/-: +3.3
⚖️ Over/Under
ME
--
LIB
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -3.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LIB
ME
LIB
ME
ML
60% 3-2
67% 2-1
80% 4-1
67% 2-1
ATS
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
60% 3-2
33% 1-2
TTL
40% 2-3
33% 1-2
40% 2-3
67% 2-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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