Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / SE Missouri @ Arkansas St SEMO @ ARST

SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE

SE MISSOURISEMO

0-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:00 PM ET
Centennial Bank Stadium
View Odds Details →

ARKANSAS STATE

ARKANSAS STARST

0-0  |  Home

42
Key Game
Josh Stone
KEY GAME

Josh Stone

#24 | Defensive Back
@
Joe Drew
KEY GAME

Joe Drew

#16 | Safety
Player
Josh Stone None-None
Joe Drew None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
SE MISSOURI
100%
📊
ARKANSAS ST
0%
SE MISSOURI --
ARKANSAS ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
39.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
ARKANSAS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Arkansas State)
SE MissouriSEMO (-3.5) 0 Arkansas StARST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

SE Missouri Cover

46.7%

Arkansas St Cover

53.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ARST -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ARST)

SEMO By 1-6 points

16.1%

SEMO By 7-13 points

14.5%

ARST By 1-6 points

16.7%

ARST By 7-13 points

16.2%

AI Model Projected Score
19.22
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
20.38
ARKANSAS STATE
Simulated Score
17
SOUTHEAST MISSOURI STATE
38
ARKANSAS STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Arkansas St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Arkansas St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Arkansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -1.2
C
Sim Arkansas St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -21.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 39.6
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 55.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 SEMO @ ARST 24 - 42
Sep 1, 2018 SEMO @ ARST 21 - 48
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +105.2% more
Arkansas State: 166.0 vs Southeast Missouri State: 80.9
First Downs (L5) +54.8% more
Arkansas State: 22.3 vs Southeast Missouri State: 14.4
Turnovers (L5) +32.0% more
Arkansas State: 1.1 vs Southeast Missouri State: 0.8
Total Yards (L5) +30.6% more
Arkansas State: 383.5 vs Southeast Missouri State: 293.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
SEMO Score 19.2 24
ARST Score 20.4 42
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.3 / 14.4 25.0 / 20.0
Rushing Yards 166.0 / 80.9 147.0 / 92.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.45 / 0.43
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 383.5 / 293.6 492.0 / 364.0
Turnovers 1.1 / 0.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
3%TICKETS97%
20%MONEY80%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
64%MONEY36%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
22%TICKETS78%
46%MONEY54%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
SEMO
--
ARST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
🎯 ATS (Spread)
SEMO
--
ARST Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.6 ATS +/-: -0.2
⚖️ Over/Under
SEMO
--
ARST
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -6.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ARST
SEMO
ARST
SEMO
ML
75% 3-1
50% 1-1
100% 5-0
50% 1-1
ATS
100% 4-0
50% 1-1
60% 3-2
50% 1-1
TTL
25% 1-3
100% 2-0
40% 2-3
100% 2-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Live Stream, TV Channel, and G…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
David Pollack's Bold Cam Coleman Comparison Draws Fiery Backlash…
headtopics 2 days, 18 hours ago
Dave Portnoy Axed from Fox's Big Noon Kickoff: Ohio State Blamed…
huffpost 4 days ago
Bearcats Battle RedHawks for Victory Bell at TQL Stadium: A Hist…
si 3 weeks, 2 days ago
TCU's Next Two Games Won't Erase Ireland Debacle, But They Can R…
si 3 weeks, 5 days ago