Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Missouri St @ USC MOST @ USC

MISSOURI STATE

MISSOURI STMOST

0-0  |  Road

13
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 7:30 PM ET
Los Angeles Memorial Coliseum
View Odds Details →

USC

USCUSC

0-0  |  Home

73
Key Game
Stewart McDonald
KEY GAME

Stewart McDonald

#25 | Punter
@
Ryon Sayeri
KEY GAME

Ryon Sayeri

#48 | Punter
Player
Stewart McDonald None-None
Ryon Sayeri None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
MISSOURI ST
100%
📊
USC
0%
MISSOURI ST --
USC --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.4
USC
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.4 points (USC)
Missouri StMOST (-3.5) 0 USCUSC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Missouri St Cover

37.7%

USC Cover

62.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around USC -4.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (USC)

MOST By 1-6 points

14.5%

MOST By 7-13 points

11.8%

USC By 1-6 points

16.9%

USC By 7-13 points

18.3%

AI Model Projected Score
21
MISSOURI STATE
25.4
USC
Simulated Score
10
MISSOURI STATE
55
USC
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI USC Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim USC Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI USC (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.4
C
Sim USC (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 MOST @ USC 13 - 73
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +97.6% more
USC: 138.2 vs Missouri State: 69.9
First Downs (L5) +53.1% more
USC: 24.1 vs Missouri State: 15.8
Total Yards (L5) +51.1% more
USC: 438.3 vs Missouri State: 290.1
Turnovers (L5) +17.2% more
USC: 2.0 vs Missouri State: 1.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MOST Score 21.0 13
USC Score 25.4 73
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 24.1 / 15.8 27.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 138.2 / 69.9 233.0 / 65.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.86 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.46 / 0.54
Total Yards 438.3 / 290.1 597.0 / 224.0
Turnovers 2.0 / 1.7 1.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
4%TICKETS96%
23%MONEY77%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
25%TICKETS75%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
70%MONEY30%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MOST
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
USC Advantage
5-1-0 (83.3%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MOST Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: -8.0 ATS +/-: +6.0
USC
1-5-0 (16.7%)
Margin: 11.8 ATS +/-: -7.3
⚖️ Over/Under
MOST
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +1.0
USC
4-2-0
O: 66.7% / U: 33.3% Total +/-: +4.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
USC
MOST
USC
MOST
ML
100% 6-0
75% 3-1
83% 5-1
100% 4-0
ATS
67% 4-2
50% 2-2
67% 4-2
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 3-3
25% 1-3
50% 3-3
50% 2-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Bryce Young Returns to Tuscaloosa as ESPN College GameDay Guest …
yahoo 5 hours, 45 minutes ago
Texas Longhorns Lead College Football Viewership Through Week 5,…
si 5 hours, 47 minutes ago
USC Linebackers Shine in Win Over Washington, Three Earn Game Ba…
sgvtribune 18 hours, 21 minutes ago
Alabama Football's Worst Weather Games: From 1964 Snow Bowl to 2…
si 1 day ago
Kirby Smart Addresses Uncertainty Surrounding Georgia-Alabama Ga…
si 1 day, 5 hours ago