Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / California @ Oregon St CAL @ ORST

CALIFORNIA

CALIFORNIACAL

0-0  |  Road

34
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 10:30 PM ET
Reser Stadium
View Odds Details →

OREGON STATE

OREGON STORST

0-0  |  Home

15
Key Game
Chase Meyer
KEY GAME

Chase Meyer

#91 | Place kicker
@
Caleb Ojeda
KEY GAME

Caleb Ojeda

#28 | Place kicker
Player
Chase Meyer None-None
Caleb Ojeda None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
CALIFORNIA
100%
📊
OREGON ST
0%
CALIFORNIA --
OREGON ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
37.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
OREGON STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Oregon State)
CaliforniaCAL (-3.5) 0 Oregon StORST (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

California Cover

42.2%

Oregon St Cover

57.8%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ORST -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ORST)

CAL By 1-6 points

15.4%

CAL By 7-13 points

13.1%

ORST By 1-6 points

16.9%

ORST By 7-13 points

17.3%

AI Model Projected Score
17.34
CALIFORNIA
20.11
OREGON STATE
Simulated Score
24
CALIFORNIA
27
OREGON STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Oregon St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oregon St Loss
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Oregon St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -2.8
C
Sim Oregon St (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 37.5
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 CAL @ ORST 34 - 15
Oct 26, 2024 ORST @ CAL 7 - 44
Oct 7, 2023 ORST @ CAL 52 - 40
Nov 12, 2022 CAL @ ORST 10 - 38
Oct 30, 2021 ORST @ CAL 25 - 39
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +18.3% more
Oregon State: 1.2 vs California: 1.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CAL Score 17.3 34
ORST Score 20.1 15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 18.7 / 20.0 19.0 / 16.0
Rushing Yards 134.8 / 130.8 65.0 / 122.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.3 / 0.4 0.27 / 0.15
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.5 / 0.5
Total Yards 363.1 / 353.1 313.0 / 356.0
Turnovers 1.2 / 1.0 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
35%TICKETS65%
40%MONEY60%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
27%TICKETS73%
40%MONEY60%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
47%MONEY53%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CAL
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
ORST Advantage
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CAL
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-: -9.2
ORST Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 13.4 ATS +/-: +15.7
⚖️ Over/Under
CAL
2-3-0
O: 40.0% / U: 60.0% Total +/-: -2.3
ORST
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.1
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ORST
CAL
ORST
CAL
ML
100% 4-0
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
ATS
75% 3-1
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
TTL
50% 2-2
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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