Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Wagner @ Kansas WAG @ KU

WAGNER

WAGNERWAG

0-0  |  Road

7
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 7:30 PM ET
David Booth Kansas Memorial Stadium
View Odds Details →

KANSAS

KANSASKU

1-0  |  Home

46
Key Game
Eli Hiscock
KEY GAME

Eli Hiscock

#12 | Linebacker
@
Dane Efird
KEY GAME

Dane Efird

#98 | Place kicker
Player
Eli Hiscock None-None
Dane Efird None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
WAGNER
0%
📊
KANSAS
100%
WAGNER --
KANSAS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
27.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 55%
Under 0 45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-16.7
KANSAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +16.6 points (Kansas)
WagnerWAG (-3.5) 0 KansasKU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Wagner Cover

11.7%

Kansas Cover

88.3%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around KU -16.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KU)

WAG By 1-6 points

6.1%

WAG By 7-13 points

3.3%

KU By 1-6 points

11.0%

KU By 7-13 points

17.7%

AI Model Projected Score
5.57
WAGNER
22.22
KANSAS
Simulated Score
10
WAGNER
55
KANSAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Kansas Win
100% Win Prob
D
Sim Kansas Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Kansas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -16.7
D
Sim Kansas (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 27.8
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2025 WAG @ KU 7 - 46
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +159.9% more
Kansas: 427.5 vs Wagner: 164.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +143.8% more
Kansas: 213.6 vs Wagner: 87.6
First Downs (L5) +104.7% more
Kansas: 21.5 vs Wagner: 10.5
Turnovers (L5) +16.0% more
Kansas: 0.9 vs Wagner: 0.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WAG Score 5.6 7
KU Score 22.2 46
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.5 / 10.5 32.0 / 6.0
Rushing Yards 213.6 / 87.6 285.0 / 53.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.3 0.4 / 0.14
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 427.5 / 164.5 631.0 / 143.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 0.8 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
37%MONEY63%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
56%TICKETS44%
76%MONEY24%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WAG
--
KU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WAG
--
KU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 19.0 ATS +/-: +4.9
⚖️ Over/Under
WAG
--
KU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
KU
WAG
KU
WAG
ML
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
67% 2-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2
0% 0-4
33% 1-2
TTL
75% 3-1
67% 2-1
50% 2-2
33% 1-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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