Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Stanford @ Hawai'i STAN @ HAW

STANFORD

STANFORDSTAN

0-0  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sat, Aug 23 • 7:30 PM ET
Clarence T.C. Ching Athletics Complex
View Odds Details →

HAWAI'I

HAWAI'IHAW

0-0  |  Home

23
Key Game
Aidan Flintoft
KEY GAME

Aidan Flintoft

#37 | Punter
@
Josh Sagapolutele
KEY GAME

Josh Sagapolutele

#91 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Aidan Flintoft None-None
Josh Sagapolutele None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
STANFORD
0%
📊
HAWAI'I
100%
STANFORD --
HAWAI'I --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
52.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-4.8
STANFORD
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +4.8 points (Stanford)
StanfordSTAN (-3.5) 0 Hawai'iHAW (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Stanford Cover

63.3%

Hawai'i Cover

36.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around STAN -4.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STAN)

STAN By 1-6 points

16.9%

STAN By 7-13 points

18.4%

HAW By 1-6 points

14.3%

HAW By 7-13 points

11.4%

AI Model Projected Score
28.67
STANFORD
23.9
HAWAI'I
Simulated Score
20
STANFORD
34
HAWAI'I
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Stanford Loss
0% Win Prob
B
Sim Hawai'i Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence 👑 Top Selection
AI Stanford (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.8
B
Sim Hawai'i (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 52.6
B
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 54.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2026 HAW @ STAN 27 - 37
Aug 23, 2025 STAN @ HAW 20 - 23
Sep 1, 2023 STAN @ HAW 37 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.7% more
Stanford: 124.2 vs Hawai'i: 94.8
Total Yards (L5) +24.5% more
Hawai'i: 423.3 vs Stanford: 340.0
First Downs (L5) +16.2% more
Hawai'i: 21.7 vs Stanford: 18.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
STAN Score 28.7 20
HAW Score 23.9 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.7 / 18.7 20.0 / 21.0
Rushing Yards 94.8 / 124.2 96.0 / 177.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.3 / 0.47
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.4 / 0.6
Total Yards 423.3 / 340.0 306.0 / 286.0
Turnovers 1.7 / 1.8 1.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
50%TICKETS50%
34%MONEY66%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
38%TICKETS62%
26%MONEY74%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
68%TICKETS32%
58%MONEY42%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
STAN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
STAN Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: -20.8 ATS +/-: -11.4
HAW
1-4-0 (20.0%)
Margin: -7.2 ATS +/-: -8.3
⚖️ Over/Under
STAN
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.7
HAW
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: -7.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HAW
STAN
HAW
STAN
ML
40% 2-3
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
ATS
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
TTL
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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