Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / W Illinois @ Illinois WIU @ ILL

WESTERN ILLINOIS

W ILLINOISWIU

0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Fri, Aug 29 • 7:30 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Champaign, IL)
View Odds Details →

ILLINOIS

ILLINOISILL

0-0  |  Home

52
Key Game
Luke Droegemueller
KEY GAME

Luke Droegemueller

#19 | Punter
@
Daniel Brown
KEY GAME

Daniel Brown

#4 | Linebacker
Player
Luke Droegemueller None-None
Daniel Brown None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
W ILLINOIS
100%
📊
ILLINOIS
0%
W ILLINOIS --
ILLINOIS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
44.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-5.6
ILLINOIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +5.6 points (Illinois)
W IllinoisWIU (-3.5) 0 IllinoisILL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

W Illinois Cover

34.4%

Illinois Cover

65.6%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around ILL -5.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILL)

WIU By 1-6 points

13.8%

WIU By 7-13 points

10.7%

ILL By 1-6 points

16.8%

ILL By 7-13 points

18.8%

AI Model Projected Score
19.39
WESTERN ILLINOIS
25.01
ILLINOIS
Simulated Score
7
WESTERN ILLINOIS
45
ILLINOIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Illinois Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Illinois Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Illinois (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -5.6
C
Sim Illinois (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -38.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 44.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 52.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 29, 2025 WIU @ ILL 3 - 52
Sep 8, 2018 WIU @ ILL 14 - 34
Sep 12, 2015 WIU @ ILL 0 - 44
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +245.4% more
Illinois: 175.9 vs Western Illinois: 50.9
Total Yards (L5) +56.3% more
Illinois: 371.7 vs Western Illinois: 237.8
First Downs (L5) +52.6% more
Illinois: 19.7 vs Western Illinois: 12.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +25.0% more
Illinois: 0.5 vs Western Illinois: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
WIU Score 19.4 3
ILL Score 25.0 52
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 19.7 / 12.9 21.0 / 11.0
Rushing Yards 175.9 / 50.9 209.0 / 29.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.3 0.44 / 0.36
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.4 0.55 / 0.46
Total Yards 371.7 / 237.8 440.0 / 163.0
Turnovers 1.4 / 1.4 0.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
63%TICKETS37%
61%MONEY39%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
32%TICKETS68%
38%MONEY62%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
WIU
--
ILL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
WIU
--
ILL Advantage
2-3-0 (40.0%)
Margin: 4.6 ATS +/-: -5.6
⚖️ Over/Under
WIU
--
ILL
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +1.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
ILL
WIU
ILL
WIU
ML
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
ATS
40% 2-3
100% 1-0
80% 4-1
100% 1-0
TTL
80% 4-1
0% 0-1
60% 3-2
100% 1-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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