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ALABAMA

ALABAMAALA

0-0  |  Road

17
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 3:30 PM ET
Doak Campbell Stadium
View Odds Details →

FLORIDA STATE

FLORIDA STFSU

0-0  |  Home

31
Key Game
Jeremiah Beaman
KEY GAME

Jeremiah Beaman

#92 | Defensive Lineman
@
Samuel Singleton Jr.
KEY GAME

Samuel Singleton Jr.

#3 | Running Back
Player
Jeremiah Beaman None-None
Samuel Singleton Jr. None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ALABAMA
100%
📊
FLORIDA ST
0%
ALABAMA --
FLORIDA ST --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
47.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-3.0
FLORIDA STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +3.0 points (Florida State)
AlabamaALA (-3.5) 0 Florida StFSU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Alabama Cover

41.5%

Florida St Cover

58.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around FSU -3.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (FSU)

ALA By 1-6 points

15.3%

ALA By 7-13 points

12.9%

FSU By 1-6 points

17.0%

FSU By 7-13 points

17.5%

AI Model Projected Score
22.18
ALABAMA
25.19
FLORIDA STATE
Simulated Score
27
ALABAMA
31
FLORIDA STATE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Florida St Win
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Florida St Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Florida St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
C
Sim Florida St (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -4.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 47.4
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 58.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 19, 2026 FSU @ ALA 36 - 50
Aug 30, 2025 ALA @ FSU 17 - 31
Sep 2, 2017 FSU @ ALA 7 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Total Yards (L5) +22.4% more
Alabama: 354.6 vs Florida State: 275.3
Rushing Yards (L5) +17.6% more
Alabama: 139.2 vs Florida State: 114.7
First Downs (L5) +13.2% more
Alabama: 19.6 vs Florida State: 17.1
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +9.0% more
Alabama: 0.5 vs Florida State: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ALA Score 22.2 17
FSU Score 25.2 31
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.1 / 19.6 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 114.7 / 139.2 230.0 / 87.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.42 / 0.35
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.51 / 0.49
Total Yards 275.3 / 354.6 382.0 / 341.0
Turnovers 2.5 / 2.5 1.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
93%TICKETS7%
74%MONEY26%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
79%MONEY21%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
81%TICKETS19%
56%MONEY44%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ALA Advantage
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
FSU
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ALA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 28.8 ATS +/-: +14.1
FSU
2-2-1 (50.0%)
Margin: 11.6 ATS +/-: +0.8
⚖️ Over/Under
ALA
5-0-0
O: 100.0% / U: 0.0% Total +/-: +16.9
FSU
1-4-0
O: 20.0% / U: 80.0% Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
FSU
ALA
FSU
ALA
ML
80% 4-1
100% 5-0
80% 4-1
20% 1-4
ATS
60% 3-2
60% 3-2
100% 5-0
20% 1-4
TTL
80% 4-1
60% 3-2
80% 4-1
80% 4-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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