Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Illinois St @ Oklahoma ILST @ OU

ILLINOIS STATE

ILLINOIS STILST

0-0  |  Road

3
FINAL
Sat, Aug 30 • 6:00 PM ET
Memorial Stadium (Norman, OK)
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA

OKLAHOMAOU

0-0  |  Home

35
Key Game
Hayden Futch
KEY GAME

Hayden Futch

#41 | Punter
@
Tate Sandell
KEY GAME

Tate Sandell

#29 | Place kicker
Player
Hayden Futch None-None
Tate Sandell None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
ILLINOIS ST
0%
📊
OKLAHOMA
100%
ILLINOIS ST --
OKLAHOMA --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
31.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
ILLINOIS STATE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Illinois State)
Illinois StILST (-3.5) 0 OklahomaOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Illinois St Cover

50.4%

Oklahoma Cover

49.6%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around ILST -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (ILST)

ILST By 1-6 points

16.5%

ILST By 7-13 points

15.5%

OU By 1-6 points

16.4%

OU By 7-13 points

15.3%

AI Model Projected Score
15.62
ILLINOIS STATE
15.48
OKLAHOMA
Simulated Score
10
ILLINOIS STATE
55
OKLAHOMA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Illinois St Loss
0% Win Prob
C
Sim Oklahoma Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Illinois St (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -0.1
C
Sim Oklahoma (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -45.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 31.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 65.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 30, 2025 ILST @ OU 3 - 35
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +24.7% more
Illinois State: 1.9 vs Oklahoma: 1.5
Rushing Yards (L5) +167.3% more
Oklahoma: 179.6 vs Illinois State: 67.2
First Downs (L5) +61.5% more
Oklahoma: 21.2 vs Illinois State: 13.2
Total Yards (L5) +59.1% more
Oklahoma: 363.2 vs Illinois State: 228.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ILST Score 15.6 3
OU Score 15.5 35
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 21.2 / 13.2 23.0 / 8.0
Rushing Yards 179.6 / 67.2 103.0 / 117.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.2 0.4 / 0.09
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 363.2 / 228.3 495.0 / 151.0
Turnovers 1.5 / 1.9 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
23%TICKETS77%
14%MONEY86%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
49%MONEY51%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ILST
--
OU Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ILST
--
OU Advantage
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: 6.0 ATS +/-: -8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ILST
--
OU
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -8.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OU
ILST
OU
ILST
ML
100% 4-0
0% 0-1
100% 4-0
0% 0-1
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
50% 2-2
0% 0-1
TTL
50% 2-2
100% 1-0
25% 1-3
0% 0-1
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
Contextual Game News
Dylan Raiola Highlights UCLA's Autzen Stadium Experience as Key …
si 0 minutes ago
American Conference Week 6: A 100-Pound Rib Trophy, a Walk-On's …
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Buckeyes' Banged-Up Roster Opens Door for Breakout Stars Against…
si 0 minutes ago
South Alabama vs. Arkansas State: Live Stream, TV Channel, and G…
yahoo 0 minutes ago
Red River Rivalry Rebooted: Why Texas-Oklahoma No Longer Decides…
yahoo 0 minutes ago