Home / NCAAF Projections NCAAF / Notre Dame @ Miami ND @ MIA

NOTRE DAME

NOTRE DAMEND

0-0  |  Road

24
FINAL
Sun, Aug 31 • 7:30 PM ET
Hard Rock Stadium
View Odds Details →

MIAMI

MIAMIMIA

0-0  |  Home

27
Key Game
Brauntae Johnson
KEY GAME

Brauntae Johnson

#9 | Safety
@
Marquise Lightfoot
KEY GAME

Marquise Lightfoot

#8 | Defensive Lineman
Player
Brauntae Johnson None-None
Marquise Lightfoot None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
NOTRE DAME
100%
📊
MIAMI
0%
NOTRE DAME --
MIAMI --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
82.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
MIAMI
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Miami)
Notre DameND (-3.5) 0 MiamiMIA (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Notre Dame Cover

48.5%

Miami Cover

51.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around MIA -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (MIA)

ND By 1-6 points

16.3%

ND By 7-13 points

15.0%

MIA By 1-6 points

16.6%

MIA By 7-13 points

15.8%

AI Model Projected Score
40.78
NOTRE DAME
41.32
MIAMI
Simulated Score
24
NOTRE DAME
27
MIAMI
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami Win
0% Win Prob
A
Sim Miami Win
50% Win Prob
B
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement 👑 Top Selection
AI Miami (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -0.5
A
Sim Miami (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -3.0
B
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus 👑 Top Selection
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 82.1
A
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 51.0
B
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 31, 2025 ND @ MIA 24 - 27
Nov 11, 2017 ND @ MIA 8 - 41
Oct 29, 2016 MIA @ ND 27 - 30
Key Model Drivers
Turnovers (L5) +108.0% more
Miami: 1.9 vs Notre Dame: 0.8
Rushing Yards (L5) +59.8% more
Miami: 214.1 vs Notre Dame: 134.0
Total Yards (L5) +44.7% more
Miami: 507.5 vs Notre Dame: 350.7
First Downs (L5) +28.7% more
Miami: 25.4 vs Notre Dame: 19.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
ND Score 40.8 24
MIA Score 41.3 27
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 25.4 / 19.7 20.0 / 18.0
Rushing Yards 214.1 / 134.0 134.0 / 93.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.5 0.31 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.57 / 0.43
Total Yards 507.5 / 350.7 339.0 / 314.0
Turnovers 1.9 / 0.8 0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
70%TICKETS30%
65%MONEY35%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
77%TICKETS23%
72%MONEY28%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
41%MONEY59%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
ND
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
MIA
5-0-0 (100.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
🎯 ATS (Spread)
ND
3-2-0 (60.0%)
Margin: 29.4 ATS +/-: +0.9
MIA Advantage
4-1-0 (80.0%)
Margin: 39.8 ATS +/-: +8.0
⚖️ Over/Under
ND
3-2-0
O: 60.0% / U: 40.0% Total +/-: +2.1
MIA
4-1-0
O: 80.0% / U: 20.0% Total +/-: +5.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
MIA
ND
MIA
ND
ML
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
100% 5-0
ATS
40% 2-3
40% 2-3
20% 1-4
60% 3-2
TTL
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
60% 3-2
40% 2-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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