TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
61-62 | Road
2
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
72-51 | Home
14
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ezequiel Duran
#20 | Shortstop@
STARTING PITCHER
Patrick Corbin
#46 | SP| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ezequiel Duran | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Patrick Corbin | None-None | 4.45 | -- | 2.1 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.45
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
2.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
41%
BLUE JAYS
59%
RANGERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.6
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.6 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TEX By 1-2 runs
14.8%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.0%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Toronto
5.57
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
59% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.6
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
TOR @ TEX
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
TOR @ TEX
2 - 6
Sep 18, 2026
TOR @ TEX
1 - 7
Jun 28, 2026
TEX @ TOR
3 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
TEX @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.713
▲
OPS
.692
183
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+89.8% more
Toronto: 4.8
vs
Texas: 2.5
Strikeouts (L5)
+11.8% more
Toronto: 9.2
vs
Texas: 8.2
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.5%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Texas: 24.2%
Errors (L5)
+23.0% more
Texas: 0.4
vs
Toronto: 0.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.0
2
TOR Score
5.6
14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.4
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.9 / 6.5
18.0 / 7.0
Home Runs
1.2 / 1.2
4.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.2 / 8.2
8.0 / 5.0
Total Bases
11.8 / 11.7
33.0 / 9.0
Walks
4.8 / 2.5
4.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TEX
TOR
TEX
ML
46%
74-87
53%
86-76
50%
80-80
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
90-71
57%
92-70
49%
79-81
61%
98-63
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
78-70-14
45%
70-85-5
55%
81-66-14
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