TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
61-61 | Road
5
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
71-51 | Home
6
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cole Winn | None-None | 0.92 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Louis Varland | None-None | 2.09 | -- | 0.1 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
0.92 Ldr
ERA
2.09
--
WHIP
--
1.0 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.1
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 1
AI Model Win Probability
RANGERS
42%
BLUE JAYS
58%
RANGERS
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
55%
Under 0
45%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.3 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TOR -1.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TEX By 1-2 runs
15.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
9.6%
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
17.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Texas
4.01
TEXAS
Toronto
5.35
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Texas
4
TEXAS
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays
Win
58% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.3
B
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
TOR @ TEX
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
TOR @ TEX
2 - 6
Sep 18, 2026
TOR @ TEX
1 - 7
Jun 28, 2026
TEX @ TOR
3 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
TEX @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Texas
TEX
vs
Toronto
TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.15
▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.242
Avg (AVG)
▲
.247
.317
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.396
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.713
▲
OPS
.692
183
▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5)
+51.1% more
Toronto: 4.2
vs
Texas: 2.8
Home Runs (L5)
+45.0% more
Toronto: 1.3
vs
Texas: 0.9
Batting Avg (Season)
+0.5%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Texas: 24.2%
Errors (L5)
+34.0% more
Texas: 0.6
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TEX Score
4.0
5
TOR Score
5.4
6
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.6
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.4 / 7.2
8.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.9
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.2 / 8.8
11.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
11.6 / 11.6
12.0 / 12.0
Walks
4.2 / 2.8
6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
TEX
TOR
TEX
ML
46%
74-87
53%
86-76
50%
80-80
57%
91-70
ATS
56%
90-71
57%
92-70
49%
79-81
61%
98-63
TTL
51%
80-76-5
53%
78-70-14
45%
70-85-5
55%
81-66-14
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