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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

67-48  |  Road

20
FINAL
Wed, Aug 6 • 3:10 PM ET
Coors Field
View Odds Details →

COLORADO

ROCKIESCOL

30-83  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Braydon Fisher
STARTING PITCHER

Braydon Fisher

#63 | Relief Pitcher
@
Kyle Freeland
STARTING PITCHER

Kyle Freeland

#21 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Braydon Fisher None-None 2.36 -- 1.0 2
Kyle Freeland None-None 5.53 -- 4.2 4
None-None W-L None-None
2.36 Ldr ERA 5.53
-- WHIP --
1.0 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 4.2
2 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
79%
📊
ROCKIES
21%
BLUE JAYS --
ROCKIES --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 26%
Under 0 74%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.8
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.8 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 RockiesCOL (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

76.1%

Rockies Cover

23.9%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

18.7%

TOR By 3-4 runs

19.5%

COL By 1-2 runs

11.1%

COL By 3-4 runs

5.8%

AI Model Projected Score
6.72
TORONTO
3.88
COLORADO
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
6
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Win
79% Win Prob
B
Sim Rockies Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -2.8
D
Sim Rockies (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Apr 1, 2026 COL @ TOR 2 - 1
Mar 31, 2026 COL @ TOR 1 - 5
Mar 30, 2026 COL @ TOR 14 - 5
Aug 6, 2025 TOR @ COL 20 - 1
Aug 5, 2025 TOR @ COL 10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Colorado COL
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.64
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲ .254
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .322
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .417
.692
OPS
▲ .739
152
Home Runs
▲ 180
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5) +47.6% more
Toronto: 2.7 vs Colorado: 1.4
Total Bases (L5) +36.0% more
Toronto: 24.6 vs Colorado: 15.8
Hits (L5) +31.6% more
Toronto: 14.1 vs Colorado: 9.6
Strikeouts (L5) +25.8% more
Toronto: 7.3 vs Colorado: 5.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 6.7 20
COL Score 3.9 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.1 / 1.2 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 9.6 / 14.1 3.0 / 24.0
Home Runs 1.4 / 2.7 0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 5.4 / 7.3 6.0 / 11.0
Total Bases 15.8 / 24.6 4.0 / 48.0
Walks 3.4 / 2.5 4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
89%MONEY11%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
91%TICKETS9%
97%MONEY3%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
57%TICKETS43%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0 (35.8%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
COL Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TOR
COL
TOR
ML
60% 97-64
46% 74-87
55% 88-73
50% 80-80
ATS
60% 97-64
56% 90-71
52% 83-78
49% 79-81
TTL
60% 93-62-6
51% 80-76-5
50% 77-78-6
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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