TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
66-48 | Road
10
COLORADO
ROCKIESCOL
30-82 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Louis Varland
#77 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Jimmy Herget
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Louis Varland | None-None | 2.08 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
| Jimmy Herget | None-None | 2.82 | -- | 2.0 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.08 Ldr
ERA
2.82
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
79%
ROCKIES
21%
BLUE JAYS
--
ROCKIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
42%
Under 0
58%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-2.3
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +2.3 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -2.3 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TOR By 3-4 runs
18.9%
COL By 1-2 runs
12.7%
COL By 3-4 runs
7.1%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
6.33
TORONTO
Colorado
4.05
COLORADO
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Colorado
7
COLORADO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
79% Win Prob
B
Sim
Rockies
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.3
D
Sim
Rockies (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -3.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 11.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Apr 1, 2026
COL @ TOR
2 - 1
Mar 31, 2026
COL @ TOR
1 - 5
Mar 30, 2026
COL @ TOR
14 - 5
Aug 6, 2025
TOR @ COL
20 - 1
Aug 5, 2025
TOR @ COL
10 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Colorado
COL
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.64
.247
Avg (AVG)
▲
.254
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.322
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.417
.692
OPS
▲
.739
152
Home Runs
▲
180
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+29.6% more
Toronto: 14.1
vs
Colorado: 9.9
Total Bases (L5)
+20.0% more
Toronto: 21.4
vs
Colorado: 17.1
Strikeouts (L5)
+17.9% more
Toronto: 7.4
vs
Colorado: 6.1
Errors (L5)
+12.0% more
Toronto: 0.7
vs
Colorado: 0.6
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
6.3
10
COL Score
4.1
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.7
2.0 / 2.0
Hits
9.9 / 14.1
9.0 / 14.0
Home Runs
1.6 / 1.5
1.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts
6.1 / 7.4
4.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 21.4
13.0 / 31.0
Walks
4.1 / 2.3
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
58-104-0
(35.8%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
COL
Advantage
(51.2%)
Margin: -1.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
COL
77-80-5
O: 49.0% / U: 51.0%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
COL
TOR
COL
TOR
ML
60%
97-64
46%
74-87
55%
88-73
50%
80-80
ATS
60%
97-64
56%
90-71
52%
83-78
49%
79-81
TTL
60%
93-62-6
51%
80-76-5
50%
77-78-6
45%
70-85-5
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