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KANSAS CITY

ROYALSKC

54-55  |  Road

9
FINAL
Fri, Aug 1 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

64-46  |  Home

3
Probable Pitchers
Michael Wacha
STARTING PITCHER

Michael Wacha

#52 | Starting Pitcher
@
Braydon Fisher
STARTING PITCHER

Braydon Fisher

#63 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Michael Wacha None-None 3.38 -- 8.0 5
Braydon Fisher None-None 2.51 -- 0.1 --
None-None W-L None-None
3.38 ERA Ldr 2.51
-- WHIP --
8.0 Ldr IP (Innings Pitched) 0.1
5 Ldr K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
ROYALS
41%
📊
BLUE JAYS
59%
ROYALS --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 65%
Under 0 35%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.8
KANSAS CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.8 points (Kansas City)
RoyalsKC (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Royals Cover

67.2%

Blue Jays Cover

32.8%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around KC -1.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (KC)

KC By 1-2 runs

19.7%

KC By 3-4 runs

18.0%

TOR By 1-2 runs

14.2%

TOR By 3-4 runs

8.4%

AI Model Projected Score
6.3
KANSAS CITY
4.52
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
KANSAS CITY
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Royals Win
41% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Royals (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.8
D
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.8
C
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 6, 2026 TOR @ KC 1 - 6
Sep 5, 2026 TOR @ KC 4 - 3
Sep 4, 2026 TOR @ KC 9 - 2
Aug 27, 2026 KC @ TOR 13 - 2
Aug 26, 2026 KC @ TOR 0 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Kansas City KC
vs
Toronto TOR
162
Games Played
162
4.26 ▲
Runs / Game
4.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.316 ▲
On-Base (OBP)
.310
.402 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.718 ▲
OPS
.692
170 ▲
Home Runs
152
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +50.7% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Toronto: 2.1
Home Runs (Season) +10.6% more
Kansas City: 170.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Runs per Game (Season) +6.1% more
Kansas City: 4.3 vs Toronto: 4.0
OPS (Season) +2.6%
Kansas City: 71.8% vs Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
KC Score 6.3 9
TOR Score 4.5 3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 1.0 / 0.1 1.0 / 1.0
Hits 11.8 / 7.3 5.0 / 11.0
Home Runs 1.7 / 0.9 2.0 / 4.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 8.0 7.0 / 6.0
Total Bases 19.4 / 12.3 13.0 / 25.0
Walks 2.1 / 4.3 3.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
18%TICKETS82%
26%MONEY74%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
37%TICKETS63%
36%MONEY64%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
57%MONEY43%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
KC
69-93-0 (42.6%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
KC Advantage
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.7 ATS +/-:
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
KC
73-85-4
O: 46.2% / U: 53.8% Total +/-: +0.6
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
KC
TOR
KC
ML
46% 74-87
55% 89-72
50% 80-80
56% 90-70
ATS
56% 90-71
57% 91-70
49% 79-81
58% 93-67
TTL
51% 80-76-5
58% 90-64-7
45% 70-85-5
54% 83-70-7
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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