TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
63-46 | Road
9
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
50-58 | Home
8
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 2.53 | -- | 0.2 | 2 |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 5.40 | -- | 0.2 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.53 Ldr
ERA
5.40
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
0.2
2 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
61%
ORIOLES
39%
BLUE JAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.4
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.2
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.2 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.0%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
16.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.58
TORONTO
Baltimore
5.8
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Toronto
3
TORONTO
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Loss
39% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.2
B
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.4
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.692
OPS
▲
.711
152
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+90.7% more
Baltimore: 3.1
vs
Toronto: 1.6
Total Bases (L5)
+47.0% more
Baltimore: 26.7
vs
Toronto: 18.2
Walks (L5)
+39.6% more
Baltimore: 3.0
vs
Toronto: 2.2
Home Runs (Season)
+30.9% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.6
9
BAL Score
5.8
8
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.5
0.0 / 2.0
Hits
14.0 / 11.1
10.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
3.1 / 1.6
2.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.7 / 9.4
7.0 / 12.0
Total Bases
26.7 / 18.2
18.0 / 22.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.2
4.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TOR
BAL
TOR
ML
53%
83-73
46%
74-87
57%
90-69
50%
80-80
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
90-71
57%
90-68-1
49%
79-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-6
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
Yankees Fan Ejected After Interfering with Potential Game-Tying …
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown