TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
63-45 | Road
2
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
49-58 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Ernie Clement
#22 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Yennier Cano
#78 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Ernie Clement | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Yennier Cano | None-None | 4.30 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
4.30
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
62%
ORIOLES
38%
BLUE JAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
45%
Under 0
55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.4
BALTIMORE
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.4 points (Baltimore)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BAL -1.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BAL)
TOR By 1-2 runs
15.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
9.5%
BAL By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BAL By 3-4 runs
17.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.59
TORONTO
Baltimore
5.97
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Orioles
Win
38% Win Prob
D
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.4
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.692
OPS
▲
.711
152
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+84.4% more
Baltimore: 2.6
vs
Toronto: 1.4
Walks (L5)
+74.3% more
Baltimore: 3.1
vs
Toronto: 1.8
Home Runs (Season)
+30.9% more
Baltimore: 199.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
Total Bases (L5)
+20.9% more
Baltimore: 22.1
vs
Toronto: 18.2
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.6
2
BAL Score
6.0
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.8
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
11.5 / 11.2
19.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
2.6 / 1.4
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
8.6 / 9.6
3.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
22.1 / 18.2
36.0 / 18.0
Walks
3.1 / 1.8
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TOR
BAL
TOR
ML
53%
83-73
46%
74-87
57%
90-69
50%
80-80
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
90-71
57%
90-68-1
49%
79-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-6
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
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