TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
63-43 | Road
4
BALTIMORE
ORIOLESBAL
47-58 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Braydon Fisher
#63 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Grant Wolfram
#48 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braydon Fisher | None-None | 2.59 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
| Grant Wolfram | None-None | 9.31 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.59 Ldr
ERA
9.31
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
64%
ORIOLES
36%
BLUE JAYS
--
ORIOLES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.5
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
40%
Under 0
60%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.7%
TOR By 3-4 runs
14.1%
BAL By 1-2 runs
18.1%
BAL By 3-4 runs
13.0%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.36
TORONTO
Baltimore
5.17
BALTIMORE
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Baltimore
5
BALTIMORE
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
64% Win Prob
C
Sim
Orioles
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.2
D
Sim
Orioles (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 10.5
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 23, 2026
TOR @ BAL
2 - 4
Sep 21, 2026
TOR @ BAL
3 - 4
Sep 13, 2026
BAL @ TOR
1 - 8
Sep 12, 2026
BAL @ TOR
3 - 7
Sep 11, 2026
BAL @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Baltimore
BAL
162
▲
Games Played
161
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.46
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.234
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.314
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.692
OPS
▲
.711
152
Home Runs
▲
199
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+57.0% more
Toronto: 0.7
vs
Baltimore: 0.1
Hits (L5)
+18.3% more
Toronto: 11.3
vs
Baltimore: 9.2
Strikeouts (L5)
+14.0% more
Toronto: 10.9
vs
Baltimore: 9.4
Batting Avg (Season)
+1.3%
Toronto: 24.7%
vs
Baltimore: 23.4%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.4
4
BAL Score
5.2
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.7
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.2 / 11.3
16.0 / 11.0
Home Runs
1.9 / 1.1
4.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
9.4 / 10.9
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
17.1 / 17.9
32.0 / 19.0
Walks
3.6 / 1.1
2.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
79-82-0
(49.1%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BAL
Advantage
(52.8%)
Margin: -0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BAL
80-77-4
O: 51.0% / U: 49.0%
Total +/-: +0.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BAL
TOR
BAL
TOR
ML
53%
83-73
46%
74-87
57%
90-69
50%
80-80
ATS
61%
95-60-1
56%
90-71
57%
90-68-1
49%
79-81
TTL
54%
81-70-5
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-75-6
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
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