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TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

60-42  |  Road

11
FINAL
Thu, Jul 24 • 6:40 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

60-43  |  Home

4
Probable Pitchers
Ernie Clement
STARTING PITCHER

Ernie Clement

#22 | Second Base
@
Javier Baez
STARTING PITCHER

Javier Baez

#28 | Shortstop
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Ernie Clement None-None -- -- -- --
Javier Baez None-None -- -- -- --
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA --
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) --
-- K (Strikeouts) --
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
51%
📊
TIGERS
49%
BLUE JAYS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.2
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 45%
Under 0 55%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.2
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.2 points (Toronto)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

52.3%

Tigers Cover

47.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)

TOR By 1-2 runs

18.8%

TOR By 3-4 runs

14.2%

DET By 1-2 runs

18.0%

DET By 3-4 runs

12.9%

AI Model Projected Score
4.23
TORONTO
4
DETROIT
Simulated Score
3
TORONTO
5
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays Win
51% Win Prob
D
Sim Tigers Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Blue Jays (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.2
A
Sim Tigers (+0) Loss
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 8.2
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 16, 2026 DET @ TOR 1 - 5
Sep 15, 2026 DET @ TOR 10 - 1
Sep 14, 2026 DET @ TOR 6 - 5
May 17, 2026 TOR @ DET 4 - 1
May 16, 2026 TOR @ DET 2 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Detroit DET
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.241
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.692
OPS
▲ .720
152
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Total Bases (L5) +36.2% more
Toronto: 15.4 vs Detroit: 9.8
Hits (L5) +31.2% more
Toronto: 9.6 vs Detroit: 6.6
Home Runs (L5) +18.0% more
Toronto: 0.8 vs Detroit: 0.6
Batting Avg (Season) +0.6%
Toronto: 24.7% vs Detroit: 24.1%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 4.2 11
DET Score 4.0 4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.8 / 0.6 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 6.6 / 9.6 9.0 / 15.0
Home Runs 0.6 / 0.8 2.0 / 3.0
Strikeouts 10.9 / 8.5 5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 9.8 / 15.4 16.0 / 29.0
Walks 2.8 / 1.4 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
57%MONEY43%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
32%MONEY68%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
44%TICKETS56%
39%MONEY61%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR Advantage
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
TOR
DET
TOR
ML
54% 86-73
46% 74-87
54% 87-73
50% 80-80
ATS
64% 101-58
56% 90-71
57% 91-69
49% 79-81
TTL
46% 69-81-9
51% 80-76-5
46% 69-81-10
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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