TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
44-38 | Road
5
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
41-43 | Home
3
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Aroldis Chapman
#44 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 1.93 | -- | 1.0 | 1 |
| Aroldis Chapman | None-None | 1.32 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
1.93
ERA
Ldr 1.32
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
1
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
55%
RED SOX
45%
BLUE JAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
35%
Under 0
65%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.7
BOSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.7 points (Boston)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around BOS -1.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BOS)
TOR By 1-2 runs
14.3%
TOR By 3-4 runs
8.5%
BOS By 1-2 runs
19.7%
BOS By 3-4 runs
17.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.01
TORONTO
Boston
5.74
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox
Loss
45% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.7
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.692
▲
OPS
.409
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+99.0% more
Boston: 1.3
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Total Bases (L5)
+40.0% more
Boston: 16.1
vs
Toronto: 11.5
Walks (L5)
+14.8% more
Boston: 4.9
vs
Toronto: 4.3
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.0
5
BOS Score
5.7
3
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.6 / 0.6
0.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.5 / 9.2
8.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
1.3 / 0.3
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.5 / 7.7
7.0 / 9.0
Total Bases
16.1 / 11.5
16.0 / 13.0
Walks
4.9 / 4.3
4.0 / 1.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
50%
80-80
46%
74-87
47%
76-87
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
90-71
48%
79-84
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
80-76-5
47%
74-83-6
45%
70-85-5
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