TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
44-37 | Road
1
BOSTON
RED SOXBOS
40-43 | Home
15
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Ceddanne Rafaela
#3 | Center Field| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 5.35 | -- | 1.2 | 2 |
| Ceddanne Rafaela | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
5.35
ERA
--
--
WHIP
--
1.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
--
2
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
56%
RED SOX
44%
BLUE JAYS
--
RED SOX
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
33%
Under 0
67%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.5
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.5 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
19.2%
TOR By 3-4 runs
15.1%
BOS By 1-2 runs
17.4%
BOS By 3-4 runs
11.9%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
5.06
TORONTO
Boston
4.51
BOSTON
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Boston
5
BOSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Loss
56% Win Prob
D
Sim
Red Sox
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.5
D
Sim
Red Sox (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.6
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 13, 2026
BOS @ TOR
7 - 0
Aug 12, 2026
BOS @ TOR
4 - 6
Aug 11, 2026
BOS @ TOR
3 - 5
Aug 10, 2026
BOS @ TOR
1 - 2
Jul 26, 2026
TOR @ BOS
1 - 6
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Boston
BOS
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
1.00
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.117
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.159
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.250
.692
▲
OPS
.409
152
▲
Home Runs
2
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (Season)
+98.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Boston: 2.0
Runs per Game (Season)
+75.0% more
Toronto: 4.0
vs
Boston: 1.0
Hits (L5)
+51.6% more
Toronto: 10.9
vs
Boston: 5.3
Total Bases (L5)
+44.1% more
Toronto: 13.8
vs
Boston: 7.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
5.1
1
BOS Score
4.5
15
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
5.3 / 10.9
18.0 / 6.0
Home Runs
0.4 / 0.4
3.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.8 / 8.0
7.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
7.7 / 13.8
33.0 / 7.0
Walks
5.8 / 3.4
3.0 / 6.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
Advantage
87-77-0
(53.1%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
BOS
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.4
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
BOS
74-86-4
O: 46.3% / U: 53.8%
Total +/-: 0.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BOS
TOR
BOS
TOR
ML
50%
80-80
46%
74-87
47%
76-87
50%
80-80
ATS
58%
93-67
56%
90-71
48%
79-84
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
72-83-5
51%
80-76-5
47%
74-83-6
45%
70-85-5
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