TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
38-32 | Road
4
PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
41-29 | Home
11
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Zack Wheeler
#45 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 3.94 | -- | 0.1 | -- |
| Zack Wheeler | None-None | 2.76 | -- | 6.0 | 9 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.94
ERA
Ldr 2.76
--
WHIP
--
0.1
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 6.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
Ldr 9
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
PHILLIES
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
PHILLIES
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.0
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.0 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.0 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
TOR By 1-2 runs
16.2%
TOR By 3-4 runs
10.5%
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.6%
PHI By 3-4 runs
16.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.88
TORONTO
Philadelphia
4.92
PHILADELPHIA
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Philadelphia
5
PHILADELPHIA
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Phillies
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Phillies
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Sim
Phillies (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TOR @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
7 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
TOR @ PHI
5 - 4
Jun 10, 2026
PHI @ TOR
7 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
PHI @ TOR
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Philadelphia
PHI
162
▲
Games Played
2
4.00
▲
Runs / Game
3.50
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.310
▲
On-Base (OBP)
.286
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.438
.692
OPS
▲
.724
152
▲
Home Runs
3
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+40.0% more
Philadelphia: 1.0
vs
Toronto: 0.6
Total Bases (L5)
+10.1% more
Philadelphia: 12.6
vs
Toronto: 11.5
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.7%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.9
4
PHI Score
4.9
11
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.2 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
7.7 / 8.1
18.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
1.0 / 0.6
2.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
7.9 / 7.8
10.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
12.6 / 11.5
26.0 / 8.0
Walks
1.9 / 4.1
2.0 / 5.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
PHI
TOR
PHI
TOR
ML
59%
97-67
46%
74-87
49%
80-84
50%
80-80
ATS
65%
107-57
56%
90-71
51%
83-81
49%
79-81
TTL
57%
88-67-9
51%
80-76-5
51%
78-76-9
45%
70-85-5
Contextual Game News
MLB Upholds Ejection of Yankees Fan Who Interfered with Anthony …
Rays Sweep Yankees as Fan Interference Call Erases Volpe's Would…
Yankees Denied by Replay as Fan Interference Echoes Jeffrey Maie…
Brewers Aim to Clinch NLDS Against Padres in Game 4 Showdown
Orioles' Centerfield Crisis: Why Byron Buxton Could Be the Answer