TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
36-30 | Road
10
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
36-30 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Kyle Leahy
#62 | Starting Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 3.81 | -- | 0.2 | 1 |
| Kyle Leahy | None-None | 2.48 | -- | 1.2 | 1 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
3.81
ERA
Ldr 2.48
--
WHIP
--
0.2
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 1.2
1
K (Strikeouts)
1
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
0%
CARDINALS
100%
BLUE JAYS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.8
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.1
TORONTO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.1 points (Toronto)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around TOR -0.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TOR)
TOR By 1-2 runs
18.6%
TOR By 3-4 runs
13.9%
STL By 1-2 runs
18.2%
STL By 3-4 runs
13.2%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.47
TORONTO
St. Louis
4.35
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays
Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Blue Jays (-0)
Win
Proj Runs: -0.1
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.8
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
STL @ TOR
5 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2025
TOR @ STL
5 - 2
Jun 10, 2025
TOR @ STL
10 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.692
▲
OPS
.691
152
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Home Runs (L5)
+49.3% more
Toronto: 1.4
vs
St. Louis: 0.7
Walks (L5)
+32.6% more
Toronto: 4.3
vs
St. Louis: 2.9
Total Bases (L5)
+27.2% more
Toronto: 16.8
vs
St. Louis: 12.3
Errors (L5)
+19.0% more
Toronto: 0.6
vs
St. Louis: 0.4
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.5
10
STL Score
4.4
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.4 / 0.6
1.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.4 / 9.6
12.0 / 16.0
Home Runs
0.7 / 1.4
3.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
6.4 / 7.8
5.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
12.3 / 16.8
21.0 / 23.0
Walks
2.9 / 4.3
0.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
TOR
STL
TOR
ML
53%
85-74
46%
74-87
52%
84-77
50%
80-80
ATS
56%
89-70
56%
90-71
53%
85-76
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
51%
80-76-5
50%
76-75-10
45%
70-85-5
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