TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
35-30 | Road
5
ST. LOUIS
CARDINALSSTL
36-29 | Home
4
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Brendon Little
#54 | Relief Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Riley O'Brien
#61 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Brendon Little | None-None | 2.10 | -- | 1.0 | 3 |
| Riley O'Brien | None-None | 5.68 | -- | 2.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
2.10 Ldr
ERA
5.68
--
WHIP
--
1.0
IP (Innings Pitched)
Ldr 2.0
3 Ldr
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
CARDINALS
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
CARDINALS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
ST. LOUIS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (St. Louis)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around STL -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (STL)
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.1%
TOR By 3-4 runs
11.7%
STL By 1-2 runs
19.3%
STL By 3-4 runs
15.4%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
4.13
TORONTO
St. Louis
4.78
ST. LOUIS
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
St. Louis
5
ST. LOUIS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Cardinals
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Cardinals (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 2, 2026
STL @ TOR
5 - 1
Aug 1, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 5
Jul 31, 2026
STL @ TOR
1 - 3
Jun 11, 2025
TOR @ STL
5 - 2
Jun 10, 2025
TOR @ STL
10 - 9
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
St. Louis
STL
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.44
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.239
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.313
.381
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.378
.692
▲
OPS
.691
152
Home Runs
▲
167
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5)
+15.6% more
St. Louis: 9.1
vs
Toronto: 7.9
Runs per Game (Season)
+11.0% more
St. Louis: 4.4
vs
Toronto: 4.0
Home Runs (Season)
+9.9% more
St. Louis: 167.0
vs
Toronto: 152.0
On-Base Pct (Season)
+0.3%
St. Louis: 31.3%
vs
Toronto: 31.0%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
4.1
5
STL Score
4.8
4
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.1 / 0.4
1.0 / 1.0
Hits
9.1 / 7.9
7.0 / 13.0
Home Runs
0.6 / 1.1
1.0 / 2.0
Strikeouts
7.1 / 8.2
5.0 / 7.0
Total Bases
12.9 / 13.2
11.0 / 24.0
Walks
2.9 / 5.0
3.0 / 3.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
Advantage
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
STL
77-85-0
(47.5%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
STL
Advantage
(53.7%)
Margin: -0.2
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
STL
74-80-8
O: 48.1% / U: 51.9%
Total +/-: +0.7
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
STL
TOR
STL
TOR
ML
53%
85-74
46%
74-87
52%
84-77
50%
80-80
ATS
56%
89-70
56%
90-71
53%
85-76
49%
79-81
TTL
46%
68-81-10
51%
80-76-5
50%
76-75-10
45%
70-85-5
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