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CHICAGO

CUBSCHC

39-24  |  Road

6
FINAL
Sat, Jun 7 • 1:10 PM ET
Comerica Park
View Odds Details →

DETROIT

TIGERSDET

42-23  |  Home

1
Probable Pitchers
Caleb Thielbar
STARTING PITCHER

Caleb Thielbar

#24 | Relief Pitcher
@
Keider Montero
STARTING PITCHER

Keider Montero

#54 | Starting Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Caleb Thielbar None-None 1.93 -- 0.2 --
Keider Montero None-None 4.30 -- 5.2 4
None-None W-L None-None
1.93 Ldr ERA 4.30
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 5.2
-- K (Strikeouts) Ldr 4
AI Model Win Probability
CUBS
0%
📊
TIGERS
100%
CUBS --
TIGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.0
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.4
CHICAGO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.4 points (Chicago)
CubsCHC (-3.5) 0 TigersDET (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Cubs Cover

54.3%

Tigers Cover

45.7%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around CHC -0.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (CHC)

CHC By 1-2 runs

19.1%

CHC By 3-4 runs

14.8%

DET By 1-2 runs

17.6%

DET By 3-4 runs

12.3%

AI Model Projected Score
5.22
CHICAGO
4.79
DETROIT
Simulated Score
4
CHICAGO
3
DETROIT
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Cubs Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Cubs Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.4
D
Sim Cubs (-0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.0
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 7.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jul 22, 2026 DET @ CHC 5 - 1
Jul 21, 2026 DET @ CHC 2 - 11
Jul 20, 2026 DET @ CHC 8 - 6
Jun 8, 2025 CHC @ DET 0 - 4
Jun 7, 2025 CHC @ DET 6 - 1
Season Statistics Comparison
Chicago CHC
vs
Detroit DET
2
Games Played
▲ 162
0.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.46
.129
Avg (AVG)
▲ .241
.229
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .320
.145
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .400
.374
OPS
▲ .720
0
Home Runs
▲ 181
Key Model Drivers
Hits (L5) +12.6% more
Chicago: 9.6 vs Detroit: 8.4
Errors (L5) +9.0% more
Chicago: 0.4 vs Detroit: 0.3
Home Runs (Season) +18100.0% more
Detroit: 181.0 vs Chicago: 0.0
Runs per Game (Season) +396.0% more
Detroit: 4.5 vs Chicago: 0.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
CHC Score 5.2 6
DET Score 4.8 1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.3 / 0.4 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 8.4 / 9.6 7.0 / 7.0
Home Runs 1.3 / 0.7 0.0 / 5.0
Strikeouts 6.3 / 5.5 8.0 / 7.0
Total Bases 13.7 / 14.0 9.0 / 22.0
Walks 2.6 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
62%TICKETS38%
77%MONEY23%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
34%TICKETS66%
68%MONEY32%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
64%TICKETS36%
75%MONEY25%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
CHC Advantage
89-75-0 (54.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
DET
76-86-0 (46.9%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
CHC
(46.3%)
Margin: 0.8 ATS +/-:
DET Advantage
(51.8%)
Margin: 0.4 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
CHC
91-70-3
O: 56.5% / U: 43.5% Total +/-: +1.0
DET
70-84-8
O: 45.5% / U: 54.6% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
DET
CHC
DET
CHC
ML
54% 86-73
58% 93-68
54% 87-73
51% 82-79
ATS
64% 101-58
61% 97-63-1
57% 91-69
47% 75-85-1
TTL
46% 69-81-9
52% 81-74-6
46% 69-81-10
46% 72-83-6
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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