PHILADELPHIA
PHILLIESPHI
37-24 | Road
1
TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
32-29 | Home
9
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Jesus Luzardo
#44 | Starting Pitcher@
STARTING PITCHER
Mason Fluharty
#68 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jesus Luzardo | None-None | 4.46 | -- | 2.1 | 2 |
| Mason Fluharty | None-None | 3.20 | -- | 1.0 | 2 |
None-None
W-L
None-None
4.46
ERA
Ldr 3.20
--
WHIP
--
2.1 Ldr
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
2
K (Strikeouts)
2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
BLUE JAYS
100%
PHILLIES
--
BLUE JAYS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
9.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.6
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.6 points (Philadelphia)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -0.6 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)
PHI By 1-2 runs
19.3%
PHI By 3-4 runs
15.3%
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.2%
TOR By 3-4 runs
11.8%
AI Model Projected Score
Philadelphia
5.24
PHILADELPHIA
Toronto
4.64
TORONTO
Simulated Score
Philadelphia
3
PHILADELPHIA
Toronto
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI
Phillies
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Blue Jays
Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI
Phillies (-0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.6
D
Sim
Blue Jays (+0)
Win
Proj Runs: -2.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 9.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 8.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Aug 9, 2026
TOR @ PHI
6 - 7
Aug 8, 2026
TOR @ PHI
7 - 5
Aug 7, 2026
TOR @ PHI
5 - 4
Jun 10, 2026
PHI @ TOR
7 - 4
Jun 9, 2026
PHI @ TOR
2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia
PHI
vs
Toronto
TOR
2
Games Played
▲
162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲
4.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.310
.438
▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.724
▲
OPS
.692
3
Home Runs
▲
152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5)
+11.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.5
vs
Toronto: 0.3
Slugging Pct (Season)
+5.7%
Philadelphia: 43.8%
vs
Toronto: 38.1%
OPS (Season)
+3.2%
Philadelphia: 72.4%
vs
Toronto: 69.2%
Home Runs (Season)
+4966.7% more
Toronto: 152.0
vs
Philadelphia: 3.0
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
PHI Score
5.2
1
TOR Score
4.6
9
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.3 / 0.5
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
8.1 / 7.3
14.0 / 5.0
Home Runs
1.4 / 1.4
1.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts
9.5 / 6.5
8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases
14.3 / 12.5
21.0 / 7.0
Walks
3.0 / 2.8
2.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI
Advantage
89-76-0
(53.9%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1
ATS +/-:
TOR
Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7%
Total +/-: +0.4
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
46%
74-87
59%
97-67
50%
80-80
49%
80-84
ATS
56%
90-71
65%
107-57
49%
79-81
51%
83-81
TTL
51%
80-76-5
57%
88-67-9
45%
70-85-5
51%
78-76-9
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