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PHILADELPHIA

PHILLIESPHI

37-23  |  Road

1
FINAL
Wed, Jun 4 • 7:07 PM ET
Rogers Centre
View Odds Details →

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

31-29  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Orion Kerkering
STARTING PITCHER

Orion Kerkering

#50 | Relief Pitcher
@
Brendon Little
STARTING PITCHER

Brendon Little

#54 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Orion Kerkering None-None 3.09 -- 0.2 1
Brendon Little None-None 1.29 -- 1.2 2
None-None W-L None-None
3.09 ERA Ldr 1.29
-- WHIP --
0.2 IP (Innings Pitched) Ldr 1.2
1 K (Strikeouts) Ldr 2
AI Model Win Probability
PHILLIES
0%
📊
BLUE JAYS
100%
PHILLIES --
BLUE JAYS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
10.7
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
PHILADELPHIA
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Philadelphia)
PhilliesPHI (-3.5) 0 Blue JaysTOR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Phillies Cover

64.4%

Blue Jays Cover

35.6%

-12-8-40+4+8+12
Distribution centered around PHI -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (PHI)

PHI By 1-2 runs

19.7%

PHI By 3-4 runs

17.4%

TOR By 1-2 runs

15.0%

TOR By 3-4 runs

9.2%

AI Model Projected Score
6.07
PHILADELPHIA
4.59
TORONTO
Simulated Score
4
PHILADELPHIA
5
TORONTO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Phillies Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Win
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Phillies (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.5
D
Sim Blue Jays (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 10.7
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Aug 9, 2026 TOR @ PHI 6 - 7
Aug 8, 2026 TOR @ PHI 7 - 5
Aug 7, 2026 TOR @ PHI 5 - 4
Jun 10, 2026 PHI @ TOR 7 - 4
Jun 9, 2026 PHI @ TOR 2 - 3
Season Statistics Comparison
Philadelphia PHI
vs
Toronto TOR
2
Games Played
▲ 162
3.50
Runs / Game
▲ 4.00
.247
Avg (AVG)
.247
.286
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .310
.438 ▲
Slugging (SLG)
.381
.724 ▲
OPS
.692
3
Home Runs
▲ 152
Key Model Drivers
Errors (L5) +17.0% more
Philadelphia: 0.7 vs Toronto: 0.5
Walks (L5) +13.8% more
Philadelphia: 4.1 vs Toronto: 3.6
Slugging Pct (Season) +5.7%
Philadelphia: 43.8% vs Toronto: 38.1%
OPS (Season) +3.2%
Philadelphia: 72.4% vs Toronto: 69.2%
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
PHI Score 6.1 1
TOR Score 4.6 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Hits 9.6 / 8.5 5.0 / 5.0
Home Runs 2.0 / 1.7 0.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts 10.3 / 7.7 8.0 / 4.0
Total Bases 17.5 / 14.7 8.0 / 8.0
Walks 3.6 / 4.1 2.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
73%TICKETS27%
73%MONEY27%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
45%TICKETS55%
59%MONEY41%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
66%TICKETS34%
82%MONEY18%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
PHI Advantage
89-76-0 (53.9%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
PHI
(41.2%)
Margin: 0.1 ATS +/-:
TOR Advantage
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
PHI
78-77-10
O: 50.3% / U: 49.7% Total +/-: +0.4
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TOR
PHI
TOR
PHI
ML
46% 74-87
59% 97-67
50% 80-80
49% 80-84
ATS
56% 90-71
65% 107-57
49% 79-81
51% 83-81
TTL
51% 80-76-5
57% 88-67-9
45% 70-85-5
51% 78-76-9
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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