Home / NFL Projections NFL / Bills @ Texans BUF @ HOU

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

3-1  |  Road

20
FINAL
Sun, Oct 6 • 1:00 PM ET
NRG Stadium
View Odds Details →

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

3-1  |  Home

23
Key Game
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
@
Ka'imi Fairbairn
KEY GAME

Ka'imi Fairbairn

#15 | Place kicker
Player
Tyler Bass None-None
Ka'imi Fairbairn None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
BILLS
0%
📊
TEXANS
100%
BILLS --
TEXANS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
46.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-13.1
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +13.1 points (Buffalo)
BillsBUF (-3.5) 0 TexansHOU (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bills Cover

82.6%

Texans Cover

17.4%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around BUF -13.1 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

BUF By 1-6 points

13.4%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.3%

HOU By 1-6 points

8.5%

HOU By 7-13 points

5.2%

AI Model Projected Score
30.03
BUFFALO
16.9
HOUSTON
Simulated Score
20
BUFFALO
27
HOUSTON
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Bills Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Texans Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Bills (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -13.1
D
Sim Texans (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 46.9
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 13, 2026 BUF @ HOU 36 - 31
Nov 20, 2025 BUF @ HOU 19 - 23
Oct 6, 2024 BUF @ HOU 20 - 23
Oct 3, 2021 HOU @ BUF 0 - 40
Jan 4, 2020 BUF @ HOU 19 - 22
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +23.6% more
Buffalo: 115.0 vs Houston: 87.9
Turnovers (L5) +37.0% more
Houston: 1.0 vs Buffalo: 0.6
Net Passing Yards (L5) +36.4% more
Houston: 266.1 vs Buffalo: 195.0
Total Yards (L5) +14.2% more
Houston: 354.0 vs Buffalo: 310.1
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
BUF Score 30.0 20
HOU Score 16.9 23
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 20.1 / 18.6 18.0 / 16.0
Net Passing Yards 266.1 / 195.0 331.0 / 126.0
Rushing Yards 87.9 / 115.0 94.0 / 150.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.4 0.5 / 0.21
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.55 / 0.45
Total Yards 354.0 / 310.1 425.0 / 276.0
Turnovers 1.0 / 0.6 2.0 / 0.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.3 6.3 / 4.7
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
🎯 ATS (Spread)
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
⚖️ Over/Under
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
HOU
BUF
HOU
BUF
ML
0% 0-4
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
ATS
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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