Home / NBA Projections NBA / Bucks @ Thunder MIL @ OKC

MILWAUKEE

BUCKSMIL

0-0  |  Road

97
FINAL
Tue, Dec 17 • 8:30 PM ET
T-Mobile Arena
View Odds Details →

OKLAHOMA CITY

THUNDEROKC

0-0  |  Home

81
AI Model Win Probability
BUCKS
100%
📊
THUNDER
0%
BUCKS --
THUNDER --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
236.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-6.8
OKLAHOMA CITY
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +6.8 points (Oklahoma City)
BucksMIL (-3.5) 0 ThunderOKC (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Bucks Cover

25.0%

Thunder Cover

75.0%

+30+20+100-10-20-30
Distribution centered around OKC -6.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (OKC)

MIL By 1-7 points

15.7%

MIL By 8-14 points

6.0%

OKC By 1-7 points

26.4%

OKC By 8-14 points

25.1%

AI Model Projected Score
114.78
MILWAUKEE
121.54
OKLAHOMA CITY
Simulated Score
114
MILWAUKEE
118
OKLAHOMA CITY
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Thunder Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Thunder Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -6.8
D
Sim Thunder (+0) Loss
Proj Spread: -4.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 236.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 232.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Feb 12, 2026 MIL @ OKC 110 - 93
Jan 21, 2026 OKC @ MIL 122 - 102
Oct 14, 2025 OKC @ MIL 116 - 112
Mar 16, 2025 OKC @ MIL 121 - 105
Feb 3, 2025 MIL @ OKC 96 - 125
Key Model Drivers
Steals (L5) +75.1% more
Oklahoma City: 12.9 vs Milwaukee: 7.4
Rebounding (L5) +11.5% more
Oklahoma City: 46.2 vs Milwaukee: 41.5
Free Throw % (L5) +11.2%
Oklahoma City: 84.3% vs Milwaukee: 73.1%
Blocks (L5) +23.7% more
Milwaukee: 6.3 vs Oklahoma City: 4.8
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
MIL Score 114.8 97
OKC Score 121.5 81
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
3pt Field Goal % 37.0 / 38.1 15.6 / 42.5
Assists 25.1 / 25.8 13.0 / 25.0
Blocks 4.8 / 6.3 5.0 / 4.0
Field Goal % 47.0 / 49.5 33.7 / 42.0
Free Throw % 84.3 / 73.1 81.8 / 66.7
Rebounding 46.2 / 41.5 43.0 / 52.0
Steals 12.9 / 7.4 10.0 / 6.0
Turnovers 12.6 / 14.3 10.0 / 19.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
MIL
32-50-0 (39.0%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
OKC Advantage
75-22-0 (77.3%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
🎯 ATS (Spread)
MIL
36-46-0 (43.9%)
Margin: -6.2 ATS +/-: -3.0
OKC Advantage
47-50-0 (48.4%)
Margin: 10.5 ATS +/-: +0.4
⚖️ Over/Under
MIL
39-43-0
O: 47.6% / U: 52.4% Total +/-: +1.4
OKC
54-43-0
O: 55.7% / U: 44.3% Total +/-: +0.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
OKC
MIL
OKC
MIL
ML
70% 80-34
64% 61-35
48% 46-49
60% 49-32
ATS
73% 83-30-1
68% 65-31
48% 46-49
60% 49-32
TTL
67% 76-38
55% 53-43
100% 95-0
100% 81-0
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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