NEW ENGLAND
PATRIOTSNE
3-11 | Road
21
BUFFALO
BILLSBUF
11-3 | Home
24
Key Game
KEY GAME
Reggie Gilliam
#44 | Fullback@
KEY GAME
Tyler Bass
#16 | Place kicker| Player | |
|---|---|
| Reggie Gilliam | None-None |
| Tyler Bass | None-None |
None-None
W-L
None-None
AI Model Win Probability
PATRIOTS
7%
BILLS
93%
PATRIOTS
--
BILLS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
55.9
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
50%
Under 0
50%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-11.4
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +11.4 points (Buffalo)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -11.4 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)
NE By 1-6 points
9.7%
NE By 7-13 points
6.3%
BUF By 1-6 points
14.5%
BUF By 7-13 points
19.7%
AI Model Projected Score
New England
22.28
NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo
33.64
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
New England
13
NEW ENGLAND
Buffalo
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Bills
Win
93% Win Prob
A
Sim
Bills
Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Bills (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -11.4
B
Sim
Bills (+0)
Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 55.9
D
Sim
u0.0
Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Oct 4, 2026
NE @ BUF
29 - 26
Dec 14, 2025
BUF @ NE
35 - 31
Oct 5, 2025
NE @ BUF
23 - 20
Jan 5, 2025
BUF @ NE
16 - 23
Dec 22, 2024
NE @ BUF
21 - 24
Key Model Drivers
Net Passing Yards (L5)
+46.2% more
Buffalo: 295.2
vs
New England: 202.0
Total Yards (L5)
+35.6% more
Buffalo: 451.1
vs
New England: 332.7
First Downs (L5)
+30.9% more
Buffalo: 24.6
vs
New England: 18.8
Yards Per Play (L5)
+27.6% more
Buffalo: 7.2
vs
New England: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
NE Score
22.3
21
BUF Score
33.6
24
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs
24.6 / 18.8
19.0 / 28.0
Net Passing Yards
295.2 / 202.0
152.0 / 253.0
Rushing Yards
155.9 / 130.7
172.0 / 126.0
Third Down Efficiency
0.5 / 0.3
0.36 / 0.58
Time of Possession
0.5 / 0.5
0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards
451.1 / 332.7
324.0 / 379.0
Turnovers
0.3 / 1.3
1.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play
7.2 / 5.7
5.6 / 5.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NE
2-2-0
(50.0%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
BUF
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NE
2-1-1
(66.7%)
Margin: -3.0
ATS +/-: -0.9
BUF
Advantage
3-1-0
(75.0%)
Margin: 5.0
ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NE
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0%
Total +/-: -10.0
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0%
Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NE
BUF
NE
ML
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
50%
2-2
75%
3-1
ATS
25%
1-3
33%
1-2-1
25%
1-3
33%
1-2-1
TTL
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
25%
1-3
50%
2-2
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