Home / NFL Projections NFL / Jets @ Bills NYJ @ BUF

NEW YORK

JETSNYJ

4-11  |  Road

14
FINAL
Sun, Dec 29 • 1:00 PM ET
Highmark Stadium
View Odds Details →

BUFFALO

BILLSBUF

12-3  |  Home

40
Key Game
Will McDonald IV
KEY GAME

Will McDonald IV

#9 | Defensive End
@
Tyler Bass
KEY GAME

Tyler Bass

#16 | Place kicker
Player
Will McDonald IV None-None
Tyler Bass None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
JETS
8%
📊
BILLS
92%
JETS --
BILLS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
58.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 68%
Under 0 32%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-9.2
BUFFALO
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +9.2 points (Buffalo)
JetsNYJ (-3.5) 0 BillsBUF (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Jets Cover

25.5%

Bills Cover

74.5%

+42+28+140-14-28-42
Distribution centered around BUF -9.2 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (BUF)

NYJ By 1-6 points

11.3%

NYJ By 7-13 points

7.9%

BUF By 1-6 points

15.6%

BUF By 7-13 points

19.7%

AI Model Projected Score
24.46
NEW YORK
33.67
BUFFALO
Simulated Score
13
NEW YORK
27
BUFFALO
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI Bills Win
92% Win Prob
A
Sim Bills Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Agreement
AI Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -9.2
B
Sim Bills (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -14.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 58.1
C
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 40.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Jan 4, 2026 NYJ @ BUF 8 - 35
Sep 14, 2025 BUF @ NYJ 30 - 10
Dec 29, 2024 NYJ @ BUF 14 - 40
Oct 14, 2024 BUF @ NYJ 23 - 20
Nov 19, 2023 NYJ @ BUF 6 - 32
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +76.2% more
Buffalo: 161.3 vs New York: 91.5
Total Yards (L5) +22.3% more
Buffalo: 408.8 vs New York: 334.3
First Downs (L5) +21.8% more
Buffalo: 22.8 vs New York: 18.7
Yards Per Play (L5) +17.8% more
Buffalo: 6.7 vs New York: 5.7
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
NYJ Score 24.5 14
BUF Score 33.7 40
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 22.8 / 18.7 23.0 / 20.0
Net Passing Yards 247.5 / 242.8 251.0 / 169.0
Rushing Yards 161.3 / 91.5 97.0 / 112.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.5 / 0.4 0.57 / 0.44
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.52 / 0.48
Total Yards 408.8 / 334.3 348.0 / 281.0
Turnovers 0.5 / 1.0 0.0 / 3.0
Yards Per Play 6.7 / 5.7 5.6 / 4.9
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
Public splits unavailable
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
NYJ
1-3-0 (25.0%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
🎯 ATS (Spread)
NYJ
2-1-1 (66.7%)
Margin: -2.0 ATS +/-: +1.9
BUF Advantage
3-1-0 (75.0%)
Margin: 5.0 ATS +/-: -0.3
⚖️ Over/Under
NYJ
1-3-0
O: 25.0% / U: 75.0% Total +/-: -4.3
BUF
3-1-0
O: 75.0% / U: 25.0% Total +/-: +8.8
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
BUF
NYJ
BUF
NYJ
ML
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
50% 2-2
75% 3-1
ATS
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
25% 1-3
33% 1-2-1
TTL
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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