Home / NFL Projections NFL / Texans @ Rams HOU @ LAR

HOUSTON

TEXANSHOU

0-0  |  Road

9
FINAL
Sun, Sep 7 • 4:25 PM ET
SoFi Stadium
View Odds Details →

LOS ANGELES

RAMSLAR

0-0  |  Home

14
Key Game
Tremon Smith
KEY GAME

Tremon Smith

#11 | Cornerback
@
Ethan Evans
KEY GAME

Ethan Evans

#42 | Punter
Player
Tremon Smith None-None
Ethan Evans None-None
None-None W-L None-None
AI Model Win Probability
TEXANS
0%
📊
RAMS
100%
TEXANS --
RAMS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
45.3
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-1.5
HOUSTON
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +1.5 points (Houston)
TexansHOU (-3.5) 0 RamsLAR (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Texans Cover

54.3%

Rams Cover

45.7%

-42-28-140+14+28+42
Distribution centered around HOU -1.5 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (HOU)

HOU By 1-6 points

16.8%

HOU By 7-13 points

16.5%

LAR By 1-6 points

15.9%

LAR By 7-13 points

14.2%

AI Model Projected Score
23.38
HOUSTON
21.88
LOS ANGELES
Simulated Score
20
HOUSTON
27
LOS ANGELES
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Texans Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Rams Win
50% Win Prob
C
Point Spread (ATS)
Divergence
AI Texans (-0) Loss
Proj Spread: -1.5
D
Sim Rams (+0) Win
Proj Spread: -7.0
C
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 45.3
D
Sim u0.0 Win
Proj Total: 47.0
C
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 7, 2025 HOU @ LAR 9 - 14
Oct 31, 2021 LAR @ HOU 38 - 22
Nov 12, 2017 HOU @ LAR 7 - 33
Oct 13, 2013 LAR @ HOU 38 - 13
Dec 20, 2009 HOU @ LAR 16 - 13
Key Model Drivers
Rushing Yards (L5) +27.8% more
Houston: 141.0 vs Los Angeles: 101.8
Turnovers (L5) +21.4% more
Houston: 1.2 vs Los Angeles: 0.9
Third Down Efficiency (L5) +10.0% more
Houston: 0.5 vs Los Angeles: 0.4
Net Passing Yards (L5) +23.0% more
Los Angeles: 244.2 vs Houston: 198.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
HOU Score 23.4 9
LAR Score 21.9 14
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
First Downs 17.5 / 17.5 18.0 / 18.0
Net Passing Yards 244.2 / 198.5 224.0 / 151.0
Rushing Yards 101.8 / 141.0 72.0 / 114.0
Third Down Efficiency 0.4 / 0.5 0.54 / 0.22
Time of Possession 0.5 / 0.5 0.48 / 0.52
Total Yards 346.0 / 339.5 296.0 / 265.0
Turnovers 0.9 / 1.2 1.0 / 2.0
Yards Per Play 5.6 / 5.4 5.2 / 4.6
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
36%TICKETS64%
50%MONEY50%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
53%TICKETS47%
47%MONEY53%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
61%TICKETS39%
30%MONEY70%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
LAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
🎯 ATS (Spread)
HOU
0-4-0 (0.0%)
Margin: -6.3 ATS +/-: -7.6
LAR Advantage
2-2-0 (50.0%)
Margin: 0.5 ATS +/-: -2.5
⚖️ Over/Under
HOU
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: +3.0
LAR
2-2-0
O: 50.0% / U: 50.0% Total +/-: -3.5
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
LAR
HOU
LAR
HOU
ML
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
25% 1-3
ATS
50% 2-2
0% 0-4
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
TTL
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
50% 2-2
25% 1-3
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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