Home / MLB Projections MLB / Blue Jays @ Rangers TOR @ TEX

TORONTO

BLUE JAYSTOR

26-27  |  Road

0
FINAL
Tue, May 27 • 8:05 PM ET
Globe Life Field
View Odds Details →

TEXAS

RANGERSTEX

26-29  |  Home

2
Probable Pitchers
Josh Smith
STARTING PITCHER

Josh Smith

#9 | Second Base
@
Jacob Latz
STARTING PITCHER

Jacob Latz

#67 | Relief Pitcher
Player W-L ERA WHIP IP K
Josh Smith None-None -- -- -- --
Jacob Latz None-None 3.38 -- 3.0 4
None-None W-L None-None
-- ERA 3.38
-- WHIP --
-- IP (Innings Pitched) 3.0
-- K (Strikeouts) 4
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
📊
RANGERS
0%
BLUE JAYS --
RANGERS --
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
7.6
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0 0%
Under 0 100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.8
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.8 points (Texas)
Blue JaysTOR (-3.5) 0 RangersTEX (+3.5)
Model Expected Spread
Spread Distribution
AI Model

Blue Jays Cover

42.5%

Rangers Cover

57.5%

+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.8 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)

TOR By 1-2 runs

16.9%

TOR By 3-4 runs

11.3%

TEX By 1-2 runs

19.4%

TEX By 3-4 runs

15.7%

AI Model Projected Score
3.44
TORONTO
4.2
TEXAS
Simulated Score
5
TORONTO
4
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Divergence
AI Rangers Win
0% Win Prob
D
Sim Blue Jays Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Divergence
AI Rangers (+0) Win
Proj Runs: -0.8
D
Sim Blue Jays (-0) Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI o0 Win
Proj Total: 7.6
D
Sim u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date Game Score
Sep 20, 2026 TOR @ TEX 7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026 TOR @ TEX 2 - 6
Sep 18, 2026 TOR @ TEX 1 - 7
Jun 28, 2026 TEX @ TOR 3 - 2
Jun 27, 2026 TEX @ TOR 7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto TOR
vs
Texas TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲ 4.15
.247 ▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲ .317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲ .396
.692
OPS
▲ .713
152
Home Runs
▲ 183
Key Model Drivers
Walks (L5) +93.4% more
Texas: 3.5 vs Toronto: 1.8
Home Runs (L5) +25.0% more
Texas: 0.9 vs Toronto: 0.7
Home Runs (Season) +20.4% more
Texas: 183.0 vs Toronto: 152.0
Errors (L5) +19.0% more
Texas: 0.5 vs Toronto: 0.3
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric Projected Actual
Score Game
TOR Score 3.4 0
TEX Score 4.2 2
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors 0.5 / 0.3 0.0 / 2.0
Hits 5.9 / 6.8 6.0 / 4.0
Home Runs 0.9 / 0.7 0.0 / 0.0
Strikeouts 5.9 / 6.0 8.0 / 8.0
Total Bases 9.7 / 10.0 6.0 / 6.0
Walks 3.5 / 1.8 6.0 / 2.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: -- → --
24%TICKETS76%
27%MONEY73%
Spread (ATS)
Open: -- → --
54%TICKETS46%
38%MONEY62%
Total (O/U)
Open: -- → --
33%TICKETS67%
9%MONEY91%
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0 (48.8%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
80-82-0 (49.4%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
TEX Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3 ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4% Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1% Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TOR
TEX
TOR
ML
53% 86-76
46% 74-87
57% 91-70
50% 80-80
ATS
57% 92-70
56% 90-71
61% 98-63
49% 79-81
TTL
53% 78-70-14
51% 80-76-5
55% 81-66-14
45% 70-85-5
Accuracy:
Elite (>60%)
Good (53-60%)
Neutral (48-52%)
Under (43-47%)
Danger (≤42%)
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