TORONTO
BLUE JAYSTOR
25-27 | Road
2
TEXAS
RANGERSTEX
26-28 | Home
1
Probable Pitchers
STARTING PITCHER
Josh Smith
#9 | Second Base@
STARTING PITCHER
Cole Winn
#60 | Relief Pitcher| Player | W-L | ERA | WHIP | IP | K |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Josh Smith | None-None | -- | -- | -- | -- |
| Cole Winn | None-None | 0.00 | -- | 1.0 | -- |
None-None
W-L
None-None
--
ERA
0.00
--
WHIP
--
--
IP (Innings Pitched)
1.0
--
K (Strikeouts)
--
AI Model Win Probability
BLUE JAYS
100%
RANGERS
0%
BLUE JAYS
--
RANGERS
--
AI Model Projected Total
AI Projection
8.1
Projected
Book Total
--
Over / Under Line
Over 0
0%
Under 0
100%
AI Model Spread Expectation
AI Spread Proj
-0.7
TEXAS
Book Spread
--
Book Line
▲ Edge: +0.7 points (Texas)
Spread Distribution
AI Model
+12+8+40-4-8-12
Distribution centered around TEX -0.7 expected margin.
Margin of Victory (TEX)
TOR By 1-2 runs
17.0%
TOR By 3-4 runs
11.4%
TEX By 1-2 runs
19.4%
TEX By 3-4 runs
15.6%
AI Model Projected Score
Toronto
3.67
TORONTO
Texas
4.39
TEXAS
Simulated Score
Toronto
4
TORONTO
Texas
5
TEXAS
Projections Grades
Moneyline (ML)
Agreement
AI
Rangers
Loss
0% Win Prob
D
Sim
Rangers
Loss
50% Win Prob
D
Run Line (ATS)
Agreement
AI
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -0.7
D
Sim
Rangers (+0)
Loss
Proj Runs: -1.0
D
Over/Under (Total)
No Consensus
AI
o0
Win
Proj Total: 8.1
D
Sim
u0.0
Proj Total: 9.0
D
Head-to-Head History
Date
Game
Score
Sep 20, 2026
TOR @ TEX
7 - 2
Sep 19, 2026
TOR @ TEX
2 - 6
Sep 18, 2026
TOR @ TEX
1 - 7
Jun 28, 2026
TEX @ TOR
3 - 2
Jun 27, 2026
TEX @ TOR
7 - 4
Season Statistics Comparison
Toronto
TOR
vs
Texas
TEX
162
Games Played
162
4.00
Runs / Game
▲
4.15
.247
▲
Avg (AVG)
.242
.310
On-Base (OBP)
▲
.317
.381
Slugging (SLG)
▲
.396
.692
OPS
▲
.713
152
Home Runs
▲
183
Key Model Drivers
Strikeouts (L5)
+38.4% more
Texas: 8.4
vs
Toronto: 6.0
Home Runs (L5)
+37.0% more
Texas: 0.9
vs
Toronto: 0.5
Errors (L5)
+29.0% more
Texas: 0.7
vs
Toronto: 0.4
Total Bases (L5)
+23.5% more
Texas: 10.5
vs
Toronto: 8.5
Post-Mortem Analysis
Metric
Projected
Actual
Score Game
TOR Score
3.7
2
TEX Score
4.4
1
Team Stats Splits (Home / Away)
Errors
0.7 / 0.4
0.0 / 0.0
Hits
6.3 / 6.2
5.0 / 8.0
Home Runs
0.9 / 0.5
1.0 / 1.0
Strikeouts
8.4 / 6.0
1.0 / 6.0
Total Bases
10.5 / 8.5
8.0 / 13.0
Walks
3.3 / 2.7
4.0 / 0.0
Public Market Splits
Moneyline
Open: --
→
--
Spread (ATS)
Open: --
→
--
Total (O/U)
Open: --
→
--
Situational Trends
📊 Win-Loss
TOR
79-83-0
(48.8%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
80-82-0
(49.4%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
🎯 ATS (Spread)
TOR
(46.9%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
TEX
Advantage
(48.2%)
Margin: -0.3
ATS +/-:
⚖️ Over/Under
TOR
81-76-5
O: 51.6% / U: 48.4%
Total +/-: +0.3
TEX
84-69-9
O: 54.9% / U: 45.1%
Total +/-: +0.6
Season to Date Model Accuracy
AI Model
SIM Engine
TEX
TOR
TEX
TOR
ML
53%
86-76
46%
74-87
57%
91-70
50%
80-80
ATS
57%
92-70
56%
90-71
61%
98-63
49%
79-81
TTL
53%
78-70-14
51%
80-76-5
55%
81-66-14
45%
70-85-5
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